Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
401
FNUS73 KDLH 181031
FWSDLH
Spot Forecast for Fry Wildfire...USFS
National Weather Service Duluth MN
531 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 CDT on May 18.
If there are questions or concerns with this forecast, or if
conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service in Duluth at 218-729-0653.
.DISCUSSION...
A cold front currently over north central Minnesota will make its
way east throughout the morning. While exact timing is uncertain,
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected at the burn site
this morning and possibly a second round this afternoon. South to
southeasterly winds will veer to the west as the cold front
passes sometime this afternoon and will be breezy - with gusts up
to 25 mph. Despite the chance for showers and thunderstorms,
minimum RH values could lower to the 40-50 percent range.
.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Rain showers
likely in the morning. Chance of thunderstorms
through the day. Chance of rain showers in the
afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................4 until 0900, then 3 until 1100, then 2 until
1200, then 1 until 1300, then 3 until 1500,
then 4 until 1600, then 3 until 1700, then 1.
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........47 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 8 to 12 mph with gusts to around 20
mph shifting to the southwest around 12 mph
with gusts to around 20 mph late in the
afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms in the morning. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late
in the morning, then gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms late in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......1800 ft AGL increasing to 4200 ft AGL in the
afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 18 to 24 mph shifting to the west 22 to
26 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (8000-24700 knot-ft) increasing to
excellent (97200 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.15 inches.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MC CDY MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC PC
Weather cov.....LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).60 70 50 40 30 20 10 30 40 50 30 10
LAL.............4 4 4 3 3 2 1 3 3 4 3 1
Temp............52 55 55 60 61 64 68 69 70 71 70 70
RH..............86 80 83 75 75 70 63 63 63 61 59 53
20 FT wind dir..S S S S S S S S SW SW W W
20 FT wind spd..8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11
20 FT wind gust.16 18 18 20 20 20 19 19 19 20 20 20
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.8 2.5 3.1 2.9 3.2 3.0 4.2
Transp wind dir.S S S S S S S SW SW SW W W
Transp wind spd.18 18 20 23 23 23 24 24 23 23 22 26
Haines index....5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
SDspl kt-ft/10008 9 11 18 25 35 53 66 58 64 56 97
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 46.
Max humidity........71 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 12 mph. Gusts up to 22 mph
early in the evening.
Mixing height.......3900 ft AGL decreasing to 1400 ft AGL early in
the evening.
Transport winds.....West 15 to 24 mph decreasing to around 14 mph
overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (62300-81600 knot-ft) decreasing to
poor to fair (5700-21600 knot-ft) early in the
evening.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.01 inches.
TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky cover.......PCLDY MCLEAR CLEAR CLEAR CLEAR CLEAR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............69 60 54 51 49 47
RH..............47 51 59 63 66 68
20 ft wind......W 11 W 10 W 9 W 7 W 6 SW 6
20 ft wind gust.20 19 16 14 14 13
Mix hgt (ft)....3900 1400 900 500 600 500
Transport wind..W 24 W 17 W 15 W 14 W 14 W 14
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4
SDspl kt-ft/100082 22 12 6 7 6
.SUNDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent) then becoming partly
sunny (55-65 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 9 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph
early in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1300 ft AGL increasing to 2600 ft AGL late in
the morning, then increasing to 6000 ft AGL in
the late morning and early afternoon decreasing
to 3400 ft AGL late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 12 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (5800-15800 knot-ft) increasing to
good (33700 knot-ft) late in the morning, then
increasing to good to excellent (52400-89800
knot-ft) in the late morning and early
afternoon decreasing to fair to good
(29700-37000 knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky cover.......CLEAR MCLEAR PCLDY MCLDY
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1
Temp............46 56 66 69
RH..............71 51 33 31
20 FT wind......SW 5G12 W 8G15 W 9G18 SW 9G15
Mix hgt (ft)....400 2600 5700 4200
Transport wind..SW 15 W 15 W 17 SW 14
Haines index....4 4 4 4
SDspl kt-ft/10006 34 86 52
$$
Forecaster...Krystal
Requested by...Preston Osland
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2414548.0/DLH
.DELDT 05/18/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL preston.osland@usda.gov