Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
898 FNUS73 KDLH 232253 FWSDLH Spot Forecast for BWCA SAR...St. Louis County EM National Weather Service Duluth MN 553 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1800 CDT on May 23. If there are questions or concerns with this forecast, or if conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service in Duluth at 218-729-0653. .DISCUSSION... Search site and General Ely Forecast - Wind direction may be variable for the next 1 to 2 hours, switching from northwest to easterly, but with light speeds less than 10 mph. East winds will persist tonight, then become southeasterly Friday with speeds increasing to around 10-20 mph and gusting to 30 mph. Winds decrease a bit Friday night and become southerly. Rain shower chances move in later tonight as early as 11 PM (30% chance). Thunder can`t be ruled out, but chances are very low (~5). Rainfall amounts less than a tenth of an inch tonight. A gap in showers is possible Friday morning, then additional showers and thunderstorms are expected (90% chance) starting by about 10 AM Friday morning, lingering through Friday afternoon, and ending Friday evening. Rainfall amounts around a tenth to two tenths with the lesser amounts around Ely and higher amounts at the search site. Slightly higher amounts approaching 0.3" can`t be ruled out at the search site. Ely Visibility and Ceilings - Visibility greater than 6 miles (VFR) is expected through around noon Friday, though there is a low chance (~5%) that there could be brief 5 mile visibilities in passing showers around midnight tonight. Visibility is expected to fall to 2 to 4 miles at times through Friday afternoon as showers and thunderstorms pass over the airport. Ceilings are expected to remain around 5000 ft (VFR) or higher through Friday morning, then ceilings lower to around 1500 to 2500 ft (MVFR) mid-Friday morning into early afternoon. Ceilings are expected to fall as low as 500 to 1000 ft (IFR) after around 4 or 5 PM Friday afternoon with showers and thunderstorms passing over the terminal. To obtain an official pre-flight weather briefing call 1-800-992-7433. .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Slight chance of rain showers overnight. Chance of pcpn......30 percent. Chance of thunder...5 percent. Min temperature.....Around 41. Surface winds (mph).Light winds becoming east 6 to 9 mph in the late evening and overnight. Ceiling (kft).......19 increasing to 22 late in the evening, then decreasing to 18 late in the evening increasing to 20 overnight decreasing to 16 decreasing to 13 after 3 am decreasing to 8.4 increasing to 12 early in the morning. Visibility (sm).....10. TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM Sky cover.......MCR MCR PC PC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC MC Weather cov..... SCH CH CH CH CH SCH SCH Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........ Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 10 10 15 20 30 30 30 30 20 20 Chc of thdr (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 Temp............61 60 57 54 51 48 48 46 45 43 42 42 Surface wnd dir.NW N NE NE E E E E E E E E Surface wnd spd.5 4 3 3 4 4 4 6 7 8 9 9 Surface wnd gst.10 8 9 9 9 10 12 13 14 16 17 18 Ceiling (kft)...19 21 19 21 22 18 20 22 16 13 8.4 12 Visibility (sm).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 .FRIDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of rain showers late in the morning. Chance of rain showers late in the morning, then rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Chance of pcpn......90 percent. Chance of thunder...5 percent. Surface winds (mph).Southeast winds 9 to 18 mph. Gusts up to 29 mph increasing to 30 mph late in the afternoon. Ceiling (kft).......19 increasing to 23 early in the morning, then decreasing to 7.5 late in the morning decreasing to 2.8 early in the afternoon decreasing to 1.3 decreasing to 0.9 late in the afternoon decreasing to 0.8. Visibility (sm).....9 decreasing to 2.50. TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky cover.......MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY CLOUDY CLOUDY Weather cov..... S CHC CHANCE DEFNTE DEFNTE Weather type....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........ S CHC S CHC Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 20 40 80 90 Chc of thdr (%).0 0 0 0 10 10 Surface wind....E 9 E 11 E 14 SE 17 SE 17 SE 18 Surface wnd gst.20 23 26 28 29 30 Ceiling (kft)...19 24 23 2.8 1.6 0.9 Visibility (sm).10 10 10 7 3 2.5 .FRIDAY NIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of thunderstorms early in the evening. Rain showers in the evening, then chance of rain showers overnight. Chance of pcpn......90 percent. Chance of thunder...5 percent. Surface winds (mph).South winds 10 to 17 mph with gusts to around 28 mph shifting to the west 7 to 9 mph overnight. Ceiling (kft).......0.8 decreasing to 0.7 early in the evening, then decreasing to 0.6 late in the evening increasing to 1.0 late in the evening decreasing to 0.7 decreasing to 0.6 overnight increasing to 0.7 increasing to 1.2 overnight increasing to 1.9 increasing to 2.7 after 3 am. Visibility (sm).....3 increasing to 9. TIME (CDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM Sky cover.......MCLDY CLOUDY MCLDY MCLDY Weather cov.....DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE CHANCE Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........S CHC S CHC Chc of pcpn (%).90 80 80 30 Chc of thdr (%).10 M M M Surface wind....SE 17G28 S 12G24 SW 9G18 W 7G16 Ceiling (kft)...0.8 0.6 0.6 1.9 Visibility (sm).3 9 10 10 $$ Forecaster...Josh Requested by...Alex Rice Type of request...SAR .TAG 2414880.2/DLH .DELDT 05/23/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL 7310@slcrs.org,Emergency@slcrs.org,JohnsonD@stlouiscountymn.gov,7111@slcrs.org,BrinkmanJ@stlouiscountymn.gov,7101@slcrs.org,7337@slcrs.org,kelvin.mccuskey@state.mn.us,7296@slcrs.org