458
FXUS63 KDMX 310728
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
228 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Spotty showers this morning will restrengthen this afternoon
  with non-severe thunderstorms moving across the area.

- Quiet Saturday with showers and storms possible Sunday into Monday.

- More robust system Tuesday into Wednesday could be our next
  chance for strong to severe storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Convection in western Iowa fizzled out overnight with a few spotty,
slow moving showers lingering early this morning. Meanwhile, a cold
front sits northwest of the area, across South Dakota into
Nebraska with a line of convection continuing to bubble early
this morning. This will pass into Iowa later this morning,
moving across the area through the afternoon and evening. With
diurnal heating as support, showers will strengthen and become
more widespread. Even so, the severe risk today remains low with
very little instability to work with. Soundings do continue to
show fairly dry low levels, so it is possible that some
stronger gusts develop with shower and storm activity this
afternoon.

A few showers may linger in eastern Iowa on Saturday morning,
but otherwise it should be a nice day with temperatures nearing
80 degrees. By Sunday the next wave moving though the zonal
upper air pattern makes its way towards Iowa. Models are
initially rather diffuse with the boundary before the system
better organized later Sunday. As such, it is possible that most
of Sunday would be dry before precipitation develops later in
the day but confidence in the details is low at this time. The
wave looks to pass across the area later Sunday into Monday.
There is a little more instability to work with in this system
however shear still remains fairly modest. So while a few
stronger storms are possible, as it currently stands the severe
chance looks to remain low in Iowa.

A more robust system is still on track for Tuesday into
Wednesday. While timing differences still exist between the Euro
and GFS, there is still a signal in both for a more wrapped up
system with greater instability up into the area. There is some
indication that better shear may lag the instability a bit.
While details are still vague, this system will likely be the
next opportunity for strong to severe storms across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1133 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Rainfall has dissipated quicker than expected as it enters the
forecast area early this morning. Therefore, not expecting much
impact to terminals until later today. Precipitation trends
continue to be a challenge due to the transient nature of
showers tomorrow, so have included broad periods of VCSH to
reflect timeframe where rainfall is likely. However, thunder
and briefly reduced flight conditions will be possible, should a
shower or thunderstorm pass directly over a site tomorrow.
Other than scattered showers and storms, no other impacts to
aviation are anticipated.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hagenhoff
AVIATION...Dodson