Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA
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125 FXUS63 KDMX 280720 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 220 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms today with very low severe risk. - Quiet through the middle of the week with showers and thunderstorms returning to the forecast Thursday into Friday and the upcoming weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Quiet across the area early this morning as Iowa sits between two shortwaves embedded within the parent trough a cross the upper midwest. This shows up nicely in GOES water vapor imagery as one shortwave drops out of the Dakotas (more on the next) and the other moving across southern Wisconsin. By later this morning that shortwave across the Dakotas will drop across Iowa, providing enough forcing for scattered showers across the area. Instability is weak, under 500 J/kg, so the severe threat is pretty low, but a few rumbles of thunder are possible. Soundings also remain pretty dry across the area which will limit more widespread shower development and reduce QPF. Expect under 0.1" with most showers into the afternoon. With drier low levels, gusty winds may develop with showers this afternoon due to evaporative cooling but that should be the extent of any impacts. This will be followed by a dry period Wednesday into the first part of Thursday as a narrow ridge passes across the area, squeezed between entering and exiting troughs. By Thursday afternoon an upper level trough moves towards the area with southerly flow pulling deep moisture transport back into the area. The system stalls out Thursday into Friday across western Iowa before pushing across the area Friday. The instability axis looks to remain south of the area based on current guidance, which would help to limit severe potential across the area with this system. Still plenty of time for this to shift in the coming days. Another wave looks to follow quickly behind, however model solutions diverge at this time frame with substantial differences between the most recent GFS and Euro runs. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1146 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Much of the period will feature VFR conditions, though latest guidance suggests a period of sub-VFR conditions at ALO around 12z. Not a lot of confidence given the recent change and ensemble support is less than 50% so have omitted for now. Have introduced VCSH at MCW in the morning as there is general agreement in showers moving southeast into north central Iowa in the morning. This may need to be expanded to ALO and FOD in future updates. Otherwise, SCT to BKN VFR ceilings will prevail during the day Tuesday. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hagenhoff AVIATION...Ansorge