890
FXUS63 KDTX 271759
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
159 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional showers and a few thunderstorms return to the area
  tonight and Tuesday as unsettled conditions persist.

_ There remains a chance of showers Tuesday night into Wednesday,
  before drier conditions return to finish the work week.

- Temperatures will remain near to below average throughout the
  midweek period.

&&

.AVIATION...

Lake enhanced moisture has filled in across SE MI in the wake of a
departing low pressure system which will support mvfr cigs through
the day. A strong low-level jet will also increase in strength
through the afternoon and evening hours and will be oriented west to
east over southern Michigan. Shallow mixing depths will be able to
tap into these stronger winds aloft, bringing wind gusts up to 25-30
knots for the remainder of the daylight hours. The Metro terminals
will be most susceptible to the gusts up to 30 knots given the
position of the jet. Otherwise, the more likely chance for rain
showers will enter late tonight as an upper-level trough moves
through. The better forcing will be found across KMBS to KFNT, where
a TEMPO group has been introduced for rain chances.

For DTW/D21 Convection...Thunderstorms are unlikely today, but a
chance for thunderstorms will return tomorrow afternoon. Confidence
in coverage and timing is too low to include in the TAFs at this
time.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High in ceilings aob 5000 feet today and tonight.

* Low in crosswind thresholds being exceeded this afternoon and
  evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

DISCUSSION...

Scattered showers and a few thundestorms will pivot through the area
this morning as an upper level shortwave and associated low pressure
lifts into northern lower MI and a cold front wraps west to east
through the area. Mainly dry conditions are expected for much of the
afternoon with gusty westerly winds as the cooler air is ushered in
behind the front.

Showers will pivot back southeast into the area this evening into
tonight and persist into Tuesday as this upper level system opens
and shifts back through the area on its way to the eastern Great
Lakes. A fast moving Pacific shortwave will merge with this MI
system tonight and help re-invigorate the rain shower potential to
some degree and will increase pops just a bit overnight into early
Tuesday.

In the meantime, an upper low pressure system positioned east of
Lake Winnipeg will pivot southeast into the area in the wake of both
of these merging upper waves from Tuesday into Tuesday night. This
will result in a continuation of unsettled weather with periodic
scattered showers into early Wednesday. As the colder upper level
core of this northern stream system works over the area, instability
will increase enough to warrant a thunderstorm mention as well.
While this will be most prevalent during peak heating from Tuesday
afternoon into early evening, a small chance of a thunderstorm or
two will persist overnight Tuesday night into early Wednesday as the
upper low/trough crosses the area.

Thereafter, upper ridging will expand into the area late this week
once the upper trough that results from these various shortwaves
shifts off to the east. This will bring dry conditions from late
Wednesday on through at least Friday with temperatures gradually
moderating from the mid 60s to lower 70s in the Tuesday-Thursday
time frame back into the middle 70s by Friday.

By next weekend, the surface high pressure system that coincides
with the upper level ridge will shift off to the southeast with
south to southwest flow becoming established over the area. This
will lead to further warming with high temperatures into the upper
70s to lower 80s. By this point in the forecast, the next stream of
Pacific origin shortwaves begin to impact the Great Lakes and this
brings a return of at least scattered/widely scattered shower and
thunderstorm chances.

MARINE...

After a lull in winds early today, expect southwest to west winds to
increase again this afternoon into tonight as a cold front pivots
east through the area around low pressure to the north. Small Craft
Advisories are in effect in anticipation for this increase in wind
speed with wave heights responding as well. These gusty conditions
will be slow to subside over Saginaw Bay and the tip of the Thumb
where an advisory will continue into Tuesday. Cooler and unsettled
conditions will prevail into midweek with periodic showers and a
stray thunderstorm possible into Tuesday night as a secondary upper
level disturbance sweeps southeast across the central Great Lakes in
the wake of the current low pressure as it moves off to the east.

HYDROLOGY...

Periodic scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will impact the
region into Tuesday night and early Wednesday. Additional rainfall
will generally remain light to occasionally moderate. However, a few
localized downpours early this morning may bring one quarter of an
inch of rain to some locations. Otherwise, the highest precipitation
totals of one quarter to one half an inch from tonight into Tuesday
night and Wednesday morning will focus especially over the Saginaw
Valley and Thumb regions with perhaps one to two tenths of an inch
possible further south. Rises on local rivers associated with Sunday
evening rainfall will peak and subside today into tonight with this
additional early week rainfall having little to no additional
impact.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for LHZ442-443.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Tuesday for LHZ421-422-441.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for LEZ444.

     Low Water Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....AM
DISCUSSION...DG
MARINE.......DG
HYDROLOGY....DG


You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.