Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
648 FXUS63 KDVN 011900 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 200 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain will continue to become more widely scattered the rest of this afternoon. - Fog overnight and Sunday morning, which could be dense in some areas. - Active/Unsettled Sunday night through Tuesday night with several chances for showers and storms. Some potential for stronger storms Monday PM (conditional upon development) and Tuesday night ahead of a cold front. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 135 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Nothing quite like starting off your first day of meteorological summer with a deformation zone rain and temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below normal! The persistent rainfall today, fell at 0.10 to 0.30 per hour in most locations where it was found, and resulted in total amounts of 0.25 to 1.25 in observed rainfall. This rain seems to have fallen at a slow enough rate that run off will be low for the actual amount of rain received. Anyhow, the most wet soils will be in the Iowa counties, while the driest tonight will be in the west central Illinois and Missouri. This is one of several factors in a potential dense fog forecast for tonight, as low level dewpoints remain in the lower 60s through sunset, with damp top soil conditions. Clearing is the lowest confidence feature in this forecast, as there is extensive cloud cover in place, and we don`t have much dry advection or downward motion expected this evening. It appears we will at least thin our cloud cover this evening, with areas of fog forming, but should any total clearing occur this evening, fog will be possible anytime after sunset. Lows tonight are forecast in the mid to upper 50s, well past crossover temperatures around 60. Thus, we will hold off an advisory issuance, but steer our messaging towards fog for tonight. Once sky trends are confident, an advisory is more likely. Sunday, following lifting/clearing of the fog, we will see dry day of moderate humidity, and at least partly cloudy by afternoon. Any thunderstorm activity appears to hold well west of our area until later Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 135 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 A shortwave and cold front look to provide the focus for convection Sunday PM/evening across the Plains. This will advance into the region primarily overnight Sunday night into Monday morning, while likely weakening as it outpaces the better moisture transport and instability. Depending on the timing of the shortwave, we may need to keep an eye on Monday PM for any redevelopment and at least a low threat for a few strong storms. Soundings show a stronger deep layer shear potential likely augmented by the shortwave for some concerns over organized multicell storms with gusty winds should PM convection occur. Latest CSU machine learning probabilities for Monday do reach the equivalent of a Slight Risk for severe weather for wind across south/west portions of the service area. Largely south/southwest low level flow/ warm advection will foster above normal warmth, which coupled with increasing humidity will continue to make it feel summer- like heading into midweek. Toward mid to late next week the guidance continues to support a pattern change with an eventual deepening northern stream trough shifting into the eastern CONUS. An initial shortwave driving this pattern change will evolve eastward across the Northern Rockies and along the International border with ND/MN Tuesday into Wednesday. This will drive a cold front through the area Tuesday night into Wednesday bringing the potential for strong storms due the above normal warmth and moisture fostering greater instability. 00z ECMWF deterministic QPF has the look of a mature MCS developing to our northwest on Tuesday and diving E/SE into the instability across the region Tuesday night with wind potential given ramping deep layer shear, and this potential certainly bears watching over the next few days. Beyond, there`s quite the uncertainty in the deterministic and ensemble guidance on strength and position of the upper trough heading into late next week and next weekend. This owes to lower confidence on temperatures, as illustrated by NBM with Interquartile ranges as much as 10-15 degrees on highs over several days from Thursday through next weekend ranging from the lower 70s to the lower to mid 80s. Confidence in precipitation chances late week into next weekend is also low, modulated by the location of the upper trough. In general, we`re looking at "windows open and AC off" weather returning for the end of the week and upcoming weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 A remarkable poor day of aviation weather is occurring today, on the first day of June! A persistent surface trof of low pressure, with upper level deformation zone rains continues to be positioned along the Mississippi River from this morning into the afternoon. This slow moving feature will continue to bring occasional rainfall through the afternoon, with low visibility of 1 to 4 miles, and cigs to 500 to 1000ft into mid afternoon. Some improvement is likely during the early evening, but with light winds and lots of low level moisture, especially in Iowa, we`re set to get LIFR/IFR fog tonight possibly with low cigs as well. The worst visibility and cig combination is expected between 08z and 12z Sunday, with improvement to VFR expected Sunday by mid morning. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ervin LONG TERM...Ervin/McClure AVIATION...Ervin