195
FXUS63 KDVN 021900
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
200 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An active, summer-like pattern will be found through early week,
with warm/muggy conditions and multiple chances of showers and
storms. Monday PM and Tuesday PM will be   monitored for strong to
severe storms.

- Mainly dry mid week to late week with seasonal temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

It`s taken through early afternoon, but we`ve finally broken through
the fog and stratus that was over the area this morning.  This has
allowed temperatures to break into the lower to mid 70s, and highs
around 80 still seem possible, given the high sun angle, and longer
daylight hours of June 2.

Looking west, the main focus of warm advection continues to be over
the Plains states, as a next short wave in the eastern Rockies
begins to move out into the Plains tonight. The convection over
Omaha dissipated quickly as it moved out of this axis this morning,
with only high level debris clouds moving into our area.  Thus,
we`re looking at a dry afternoon and evening ahead, as the next
short wave is well to our west.

Tonight, the LLJ should be focused into Nebraska and western Iowa
through Midnight, then is expected to veer to the east towards late
night/early Monday. There are widely varied model solutions
regarding the convection to the west, but the vast majority of
solutions show a weakening band of showers and storms moving into
our northwestern counties around 3 AM to 6 AM. I`ve kept pops in the
high chance to likely range there, but otherwise, have lower chance
pops going late tonight into Monday. We`ll have plenty of moisture
for storms, but we`ll need to have activity shift into us, and
that`s a few dominoes down the line in this low predictability
of QPF placement summer pattern.

Monday, both a remnant rain area, or outflow will move into the area
in the morning. This will offer a few things confidently...One,
we`ll need to wait until debris clouds thin before we can warm up to
any new convective process, and I believe the NBM highs are too warm
in the upper 80s in most locations because of that evolution. I`ve
gone with the 25th percentile NBM highs, in the upper 70s north to
mid 80s central and south. Secondly, this outflow could provide
adequate focus for afternoon strong to severe storms, assuming we
can heat up along it.  While global models are not showing this, it
can clearly be seen in some CAMs runs, especially the NAMnest and
FV3. Storms near any boundary are likely to experience notable
augmentation to the deep layer shear in the presence of moderate
instability (MLCAPE progged around 1500+ j/kg).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Monday night, activity may be ongoing during the evening, and
shifting east of our area by overnight.  This remains a low
confidence time, as the short wave exits, but another stronger
wave moves out into the Midwest Tuesday. The upper wave moving
through Tuesday continues to show synoptic support for strong to
severe storms, but there`s lots of potential for a large MCS to
move through Tuesday evening, thus, we`re leaning towards a
wind threat in storms. Heating is not a certainty Tuesday, with
the whole region in broad warm advection through the day. In any
case, this remains a high probability of rainfall, and the best
chance for organized severe weather in our week`s forecast.
Behind this strong upper wave and low pressure (in Canada) the
strong cold front should sweep across the region Tuesday night,
with another dry, pleasant air mass found behind it. Highs in
the 70s, and lows in the 50s are in store for Thursday through
the weekend, with Wednesday being a warmer, but breezy
transition day, represented by lowering humidity levels through
the day. Certainly active, but turning very pleasant!


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

The widespread IFR/MVFR conditions of this morning are becoming
widespread VFR as of late morning, with the remainder of the day
time hours expected to be VFR, though a brief higher end MVFR
cig cannot be ruled out through 19Z. Tonight`s rain and thunder
chances now appear more marginal, as the focus for storms may
remain well to the west of eastern Iowa until late tonight. A
veering low level jet will possibly bring this activity eastward
after 08z tonight, in a dissipating mode, thus, we have retained
a prob30 group for thunder in the 08-12 period in northeast Iowa
and reduced it to showers to the southeast in MLI/BRL. Low
confidence on showers/thunder remain in place through the day
Monday, with most hours dry and VFR after 14z.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...Ervin