Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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961 FXUS63 KDVN 022333 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 633 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - An active, summer-like pattern will be found through early week, with warm/muggy conditions and multiple chances of showers and storms. Monday PM and Tuesday PM will be monitored for strong to severe storms. - Mainly dry mid week to late week with seasonal temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 It`s taken through early afternoon, but we`ve finally broken through the fog and stratus that was over the area this morning. This has allowed temperatures to break into the lower to mid 70s, and highs around 80 still seem possible, given the high sun angle, and longer daylight hours of June 2. Looking west, the main focus of warm advection continues to be over the Plains states, as a next short wave in the eastern Rockies begins to move out into the Plains tonight. The convection over Omaha dissipated quickly as it moved out of this axis this morning, with only high level debris clouds moving into our area. Thus, we`re looking at a dry afternoon and evening ahead, as the next short wave is well to our west. Tonight, the LLJ should be focused into Nebraska and western Iowa through Midnight, then is expected to veer to the east towards late night/early Monday. There are widely varied model solutions regarding the convection to the west, but the vast majority of solutions show a weakening band of showers and storms moving into our northwestern counties around 3 AM to 6 AM. I`ve kept pops in the high chance to likely range there, but otherwise, have lower chance pops going late tonight into Monday. We`ll have plenty of moisture for storms, but we`ll need to have activity shift into us, and that`s a few dominoes down the line in this low predictability of QPF placement summer pattern. Monday, both a remnant rain area, or outflow will move into the area in the morning. This will offer a few things confidently...One, we`ll need to wait until debris clouds thin before we can warm up to any new convective process, and I believe the NBM highs are too warm in the upper 80s in most locations because of that evolution. I`ve gone with the 25th percentile NBM highs, in the upper 70s north to mid 80s central and south. Secondly, this outflow could provide adequate focus for afternoon strong to severe storms, assuming we can heat up along it. While global models are not showing this, it can clearly be seen in some CAMs runs, especially the NAMnest and FV3. Storms near any boundary are likely to experience notable augmentation to the deep layer shear in the presence of moderate instability (MLCAPE progged around 1500+ j/kg). && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Monday night, activity may be ongoing during the evening, and shifting east of our area by overnight. This remains a low confidence time, as the short wave exits, but another stronger wave moves out into the Midwest Tuesday. The upper wave moving through Tuesday continues to show synoptic support for strong to severe storms, but there`s lots of potential for a large MCS to move through Tuesday evening, thus, we`re leaning towards a wind threat in storms. Heating is not a certainty Tuesday, with the whole region in broad warm Will continue to message the thunder potential in PROB30 groups for now. Brief MVFR/IFR is possible in the vicinity of storms, along with gusty erratic winds.advection through the day. In any case, this remains a high probability of rainfall, and the best chance for organized severe weather in our week`s forecast. Behind this strong upper wave and low pressure (in Canada) the strong cold front should sweep across the region Tuesday night, with another dry, pleasant air mass found behind it. Highs in the 70s, and lows in the 50s are in store for Thursday through the weekend, with Wednesday being a warmer, but breezy transition day, represented by lowering humidity levels through the day. Certainly active, but turning very pleasant! && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 625 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Isolated showers and storms are possible late tonight into early Monday morning mainly at CID and DBQ. The activity may reach to near MLI and BRL by the late morning to early afternoon period. Additional development of scattered showers and storms is possible area-wide Monday afternoon and evening; however, confidence on placement and coverage is low. Will continue to message the thunder potential in PROB30 groups for now. Brief MVFR/IFR is possible in the vicinity of storms, along with gusty erratic winds. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ervin LONG TERM...Ervin AVIATION...Uttech