Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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677 FXUS63 KDVN 291912 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 212 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet weather is forecast through Thursday with high temperatures in the lower to mid 70s. - There are several chances for showers and storms Friday night through early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 159 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Broad high pressure stretching from the upper Great Lakes into the mid-Mississippi River Valley was providing a beautiful, quiet afternoon to all of eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois and northeast Missouri. Other than some diurnal CU, skies features plenty of sun with temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. This high will slowly move east over the next 24-36 hours, and will continue to influence our weather during the short term period. Expect clear to partly cloudy skies, with lows tonight in the 40s/50s and highs Thursday in the mid to upper 70s. Winds will be light & variable tonight, and will increase out of the southeast Thursday to around 10-15 MPH. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 159 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Thursday Night through Friday night... High pressure will be nearly out of the area Thursday night, but we should remain dry with increasing clouds ahead of an approaching shortwave. Temperatures will vary depending on cloud cover, with cooler values near 50 in far northwest Illinois and values near 60 in east central Iowa and northeast Missouri. For Friday, much of the day will be dry before chances of showers and thunderstorms increase with the approaching positively tilted shortwave to the west. The threat is most favored during the late afternoon and evening areawide, with the NBM continuing to show chances around 50-60%. There is still some disagreement amongst deterministic guidance on placement, so look for additional refinements to this forecast. The threat of severe weather is low with higher instabilities remaining to our west. Saturday on... A shortwave filled zonal flow will be in place across the area this weekend into early next week, which favors shower and storms chances each day. However, there will be plenty of dry time between each system so not expecting a total washout. Confidence in a severe weather threat is low at this time, though I think we`ll need to keep an eye on early next week as instability increases with warming temperatures and moisture. Speaking of which, temperatures will gradually warm with highs back near 80 Saturday. The warming trend will continue into early next week, with highs in the mid to upper 80s by Tuesday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 VFR conditions are expected at all terminals over the next 24 hours as high pressure moves across the area. Light north winds will become light & variable this evening, and will increase out of the southeast to around 10 kts Thursday morning. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1017 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 No changes with the new forecasts this morning on area rivers. The Wapsipinicon River at Anamosa will continue to rise to just under Moderate flood by Thursday morning. The Wapsipinicon River near De Witt continues to rise and is expected to have a double crest in Major flood over the next 5 days due to routed flow upstream. The crest of 13.3 feet will be the highest the river has been since June 2020. The lower portions of the Iowa River is cresting or will be near crest today. The Skunk River at Augusta will continue to rise to 14.4 feet Thursday evening which is below flood stage. On the mainstem Mississippi, the river is expected to rise into Minor flood from New Boston LD 17 downstream to Burlington and also at Gregory Landing. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Speck LONG TERM...Speck AVIATION...Speck HYDROLOGY...Gross