641
FXUS63 KDVN 291048
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
548 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather is forecast today through Thursday with high
  temperatures in the lower to mid 70s.

- There are several chances for showers and storms Friday night
  through early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 214 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

High pressure sits well to our north across western Ontario and
eastern Manitoba. There are clear skies across eastern Iowa,
northwest Illinois and far northeast Missouri. At 2 AM,
temperatures range from 50 degrees at KMXO and KVTI to 55
degrees at KEOK and KBRL. Dewpoints across the area are in the
mid to upper 40s.

At 500 MB, ridging is forecast to move across the area with the
ridge axis moving from along the western High Plains to
stretching along a line from western Ontario southward through
the Mid Mississippi River Valley. At the surface, high pressure
is forecast to sink from western Ontario into Michigan through
the period. This will bring tranquil weather to the area over
the next 48 hours. High temperatures on Wednesday will range
from 70 to 75 degrees with dewpoints in the upper 40s.
The only fly in the ointment is that clouds are forecast to
develop across the area this afternoon with sunny to partly
sunny skies during the afternoon. High temperatures will warm by
5 degrees on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 214 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Fast zonal flow is forecast to continue through the long term
period. This will bring chances for showers and storms about every
24 to 36 hours. This period will not be a complete washout with
periods of dry weather.

Global models have slowed the timing of precipitation moving
into the area on Friday as high pressure is slow to move into
the northeastern US from Michigan. The latest runs of the GFS,
Canadian,and ECWMF keep chances for showers and thunderstorms to
our west through the daytimes hours on Friday. Chances for
showers and storms increase Friday night into Saturday. However
the NBM continues to keep chances of showers and storms in the
forecast for the day on Friday but think these will gradually
diminish today given recent trends in the models.

Temperatures will gradually warm on Friday and Saturday with
highs in the mid to upper 70s with a warming trend beginning
Sunday and continue into Tuesday with high temperatures in the
80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 535 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

High pressure is forecast to pass to our north through the TAF
period. This will bring quiet weather and VFR conditions to the
area through the period. Diurnally driven clouds are forecast to
develop today with ceilings around 4 kft.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1057 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Most areas received less than a tenth of an inch of rainfall in
the past 24 hours. The exception was right along the
Wapsipinicon River, where amounts between a half inch and one
inch were reported.

The lower portions of the Iowa and Cedar rivers continue to rise
with most sites expected to see Minor flooding. The crests will
occur within the next 2 days at locations along these rivers.
The Wapsi River near Anamosa and De Witt continue to rise with
routed flow working its way down from upstream. The river is
expected to remain below Moderate flood at Anamosa with a crest
of 17.9 feet late Wednesday evening. The Wapsi River near De
Witt has reached Major flood stage this morning and will slowly
rise the rest of this week to a crest of 13.3 feet early next
week. Rainfall will be spotty this afternoon and not anticipated
to impact the current forecasts.

On the Mississippi, upgraded New Boston to a Flood Warning given
increased confidence of the site reaching flood in 3 days due to
routed flow.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cousins
LONG TERM...Cousins
AVIATION...Cousins
HYDROLOGY...Gross