764
FXUS63 KDVN 050800
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
300 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Late this afternoon and evening there will be a period of
  several hours where winds may gust up to 40 mph along and
  behind the front, especially with showers.

- A pattern change will keep temperatures at or slightly below
  normal Thursday through Tuesday with precipitation below
  normal.


- Near daily weak upper level disturbances aloft pose a low risk
  (10-20%) of diurnal showers from Saturday through Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

The true cold front is just entering eastern Iowa and should clear
the far eastern areas by mid-morning and bring an end to the rain
across the area.

After a quiet late morning through mid-afternoon, a secondary cold
front will drop south out of Minnesota. Data indicates the front
will move through the area during the late afternoon and evening
hours producing rain showers with areal coverage of 20-40%.

The models show strong winds of 50 mph about 1 kilometer above the
surface associated with the secondary cold front. The front will be
arriving after peak heating but it does appear there will a period
of several hours late this afternoon and evening where winds may
gust up to 40 mph as rain showers would pull the higher momentum air
to the surface.

By late evening winds will slowly diminish as skies clear and
humidity levels drop.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 258 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Thursday through Friday night
Assessment...high confidence on temperatures at or slightly below
normal.

High pressure moving through the Midwest will keep pleasant but dry
conditions across the area. Deep mixing of the atmosphere will
result in breezy conditions developing each day from late morning
through the afternoon.

Saturday through Tuesday
Assessment...high confidence on temperatures at or slightly below
normal. Low to medium confidence on rain chances.

Temperatures will continue to be at or slightly below normal over
the weekend and into early next week.

In the northwest flow aloft there are daily weak upper level
disturbances moving through. While there are small differences in
timing, most solutions indicate the disturbances arriving during the
afternoon hours. Moisture availability will be key but often the
disturbances are a bit stronger than what the models indicate.

Thus the potential is there for diurnal convection to occur each
afternoon that dissipates in the evening. Coverage will be quite
low at 10-20%. Thus while there is a low risk of rain each day, the
key message is that a vast majority of the area will remain dry.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Cold front will sweep through eastern Iowa and into northern
Illinois through 12z/05. Right around the front there will be a
period of MVFR/IFR conditions. Otherwise expect VFR conditions
outside of any rain. The loss of daytime heating has nearly
removed the TSRA risk. Deep mixing after 16z/05 will create
gusty winds and low level mechanical turbulence that will
dissipate around sunset. Isolated SHRA or even a TSRA may occur
when a secondary front moves through after 00z/06.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...08