Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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290 ACUS01 KWNS 230100 SWODY1 SPC AC 230058 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL TX TO THE ARK-LA-MISS AND NORTHEAST OH TO WESTERN PA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening from central Texas to the Ark-La-Miss, and in northeast Ohio to western Pennsylvania. Isolated severe thunderstorms may persist overnight from the Mid-South to the Northeast. ...01Z Update... Primary severe threat will exist immediately ahead of multiple clusters with embedded supercells from east-central TX to the Ark-La-Tex. Over the next few hours, a threat for significant severe wind/hail along with a couple tornadoes will continue. Recent HRRR and WoFS runs along with 18Z guidance suggests this activity will diminish during the late evening as MLCIN increases from south to north ahead of the clusters. Still, have expanded level 1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks farther southeast in southeast TX to central LA. Elsewhere, thunderstorms from eastern TN to NY have largely subsided. Renewed development has occurred ahead of a surface cold front from the central OH Valley to southwest ON. This activity has held in a narrow convective line with marginally severe hail as the primary initial threat. Despite the unfavorable time of day, as the front fully overtakes this band, an increase in strong gusts may occur with some linear clustering, mainly across northeast OH into western PA. Finally, additional low-level warm theta-e advection storms should persist through the overnight from north TX across parts of the Ozarks and Mid-South. Isolated severe hail will be possible in the more sustained updrafts. ..Grams.. 05/23/2024 $$