995
ACUS01 KWNS 161253
SWODY1
SPC AC 161252

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS TO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds are expected
to increase across parts of central and southeastern Texas this
afternoon into tonight. A couple of tornadoes are also possible, and
an organized cluster of storms might eventually evolve, accompanied
by a more substantive risk for damaging wind gusts.

...Texas/Louisiana to Lower Mississippi Valley...
Initially, a small but well-organized cluster of storms is moving
southeastward across North Texas early this morning. These initially
elevated storms should grow further upscale and intensify into the
afternoon, owing to the diurnal destabilization trends and the
progressive interaction with a northward advance of richer low-level
moisture via a northward-shifting maritime warm front out of south
Texas this morning.

An evolving post-frontal upslope regime and stronger/differential
heating will likely also aid additional peripheral deep convective
development this afternoon from portions of the Pecos and Rio Grande
Valleys into central Texas. This is where MLCAPE may reach 2000-4000
J/kg beneath relatively strong southwesterly mid/high-level flow.
Deep-layer shear will be supportive of supercells, aided by veering
with height of initially modest low-level wind fields, which are
forecast to strengthen by this evening across central into
southeastern Texas.

Large hail and locally damaging wind gusts appear the primary severe
threat with initial east-southeastward propagating supercells by
late afternoon. As low-level hodographs enlarge, the risk for a
couple of tornadoes may increase by this evening in both lingering
supercells and upscale-growing convection. At least one prominent
cluster may gradually evolve and organize across central into
southeastern Texas by evening, accompanied by increasing potential
for damaging wind gusts. These storms may persist eastward into
Louisiana and other areas of the Gulf Coast through late tonight as
the near-coastal boundary shifts northward.

...Ozarks/Middle Mississippi Valley...
Potentially aided by a weak MCV, a sizable cluster/corridor of
thunderstorms is ongoing across the Ozarks early this morning. This
convection and related cloud cover will largely tend to hinder warm
sector destabilization. However, stronger heating/moderate
destabilization could eventually occur later this afternoon on the
southern fringe of these remnants. Scattered thunderstorms would
likely redevelop and intensify by late afternoon. A belt of
moderately strong mid-level westerlies (45+ kt) would support some
supercells and more prevalent multicells, with the potential for
large hail and damaging winds, and possibly a tornado.

...Parts of Wisconsin/northern Illinois/eastern Iowa...
Preceding a shortwave trough overspreading Minnesota toward Lake
Superior, a semi-moist warm sector, with upper 50s/some lower 60s F
surface dewpoints, will become established ahead of an
east/southeast-moving cold front. Thunderstorms should
develop/intensify this afternoon to the south-southwest of residual
early day precipitation and cloud cover, with MLCAPE potentially
exceeding 1000 J/kg. Low/mid-tropospheric winds will remain somewhat
weak, but enough to support multicells potentially capable of hail
and locally damaging winds.

...Southern Florida...
Although the primary mid-level wave and associated convection has
shifted eastward offshore, thunderstorms may redevelop and intensify
through the diurnal heating cycle along/south of the residual front,
enhanced by the east coast sea breeze. Even as mid-level heights
begin to rise, mid-level temperatures will remain cool (-10 to -11C
at 500 mb) with steep mid-level lapse rates, in the presence of
strong deep-layer wind profiles. While any severe storms should
remain isolated, these profiles could support a supercell or two and
sustained multicells capable of large hail and locally damaging
winds, especially across the southeast Florida Peninsula.

..Guyer/Dean.. 05/16/2024

$$