943
ACUS01 KWNS 300040
SWODY1
SPC AC 300039

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Valid 300100Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will continue this evening
across parts of the High Plains. Large hail and wind damage will be
the primary threats.

...High Plains...
At the surface, a trough is located from northeastern New Mexico
northward into eastern Colorado, western Nebraska and the western
Dakotas. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the trough, along
the western edge of a moderately unstable airmass. Surface dewpoints
across much of the High Plains are generally in the 50s F, and
MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The
corridor of moderate instability is located just to the east of the
many of the ongoing storms, suggesting that storm intensity will be
maintained for several more hours this evening. The WSR-88D VWP near
Goodland, Kansas appears to be sampling shear well along and near
the instability axis, with 0-6 km shear estimated near 40 knots. In
addition, the RAP forecast sounding at Goodland for 01Z has 700-500
mb lapse rate between 8 and 8.5 C/km, suggesting that large hail
will be likely with supercells. Some of the storms have taken on a
linear structure. This trend is expected to continue this evening,
which could increase the potential for isolated severe wind gusts.
As instability drops during the mid to late evening, the severe
threat should gradually become marginal.

Further south across west Texas, a couple severe storms are ongoing
to the southeast of the Davis Mountains. These storms are located
along the western edge of a corridor of moderate instability, where
the RAP has MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. In addition, RAP
forecast soundings to the east of the Davis Mountains early this
evening have 0-6 km shear around 35 knots, with 850-500 mb lapse
rates near 8 C/km. This environment will support a large-hail threat
with supercells, and hailstones of greater then 2 inches in diameter
may occur with the cells that move into the areas of strongest
instability. A few marginally severe wind gusts will also be
possible.

..Broyles.. 05/30/2024

$$