Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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779 ACUS01 KWNS 180047 SWODY1 SPC AC 180046 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST AND A PART OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible through early morning across parts of the central to eastern Gulf Coast States with a threat for a couple tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. Isolated to scattered severe wind gusts remain possible across parts of the northern Great Plains this evening. ...Central to eastern Gulf Coast... Primary near-term tornado and wind threat will exist with a couple clusters across parts of the FL Panhandle and north FL into far southern GA this evening. While low-level flow in the wake of this leading activity will remain weak overnight, strengthening 700-mb warm/moist advection attendant to the next upstream shortwave impulse appears to be aiding in convective development just offshore of the upper TX Gulf Coast. With a plume of large buoyancy persisting across the north-central Gulf, nosing into the central Gulf Coast region as sampled by the 00Z LIX sounding, scattered to widespread thunderstorm development is expected overnight over the northern Gulf. This will initially affect south LA and then spread east across the central Gulf Coast. Strong mid to upper-level southwesterlies will promote a mixed threat of large hail and damaging winds. Consensus of short-term CAM guidance suggests convective mode will predominately consist of linear clustering, which should tend to limit hail size in a conditionally favorable environment for sig severe hail. ...Northern Great Plains... Sporadic severe wind gusts will remain possible through the rest of the evening within an arc of high-based/moderate-topped thunderstorms from southern Manitoba to northwest SD. A strengthening low-level jet and frontal forcing should result in this potential persisting at least a couple hours beyond dusk. But a rapid nocturnal increase in MLCIN, amid the weakly buoyant air mass ahead of it as sampled by 00Z ABR sounding, will result in a diminishing severe wind threat overnight. ...Mid-South and south-central TX... Ahead of the primary shortwave impulse over eastern OK that is embedded within the broader southern-stream, positive-tilt trough, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably persist through much of the night across parts of the Mid-South region. With a pocket of enhanced moderate buoyancy over the Ark-La-Miss vicinity, it is plausible that a couple storms might produce marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts given moderate speed shear above 800 mb per the 00Z LZK sounding. A few stronger storms have developed over a portion of the Edwards Plateau region ahead of the final shortwave impulse embedded within the broader trough. Isolated severe hail/wind risk should persist for a couple more hours before quickly subsiding as MLCIN increases after dusk. ..Grams.. 05/18/2024 $$