Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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120 ACUS01 KWNS 231621 SWODY1 SPC AC 231619 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE PLAINS STATES...MAINE...AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Plains, Tennessee Valley, and Maine. A concentration of severe winds -- some 75 mph or more -- is expected across a portion of the central Plains this evening into tonight. ...Northern Plains... Visible satellite imagery shows strong daytime heating occurring across much of the central and northern Plains, with southerly low-level winds drawing moisture northward into the region. Dewpoints will only be in the 50s across ND/SD/NE/KS this afternoon as initial thunderstorms develop ahead of a potent upper trough and associated mid-level speed max. These initial storms will be relatively high-based supercells capable of very large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is also possible. As the evening progresses, model guidance is in strong agreement that storms will grow upscale into a fast-moving QLCS with an enhanced risk of damaging winds across much of central/eastern NE into western IA. ...Southern Plains... Multiple rounds of thunderstorms over TX during the past 24 hours have resulted in a complex surface pattern, with pockets of low-clouds and more stable air. This tends to limit the confidence in where robust thunderstorms will form later today. Two areas of concern are 1) western OK/northwest TX along the dryline, and 2) central/north TX in vicinity of remnant outflow boundaries. In both areas, very large CAPE values and favorable vertical profiles will favor supercell storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. Considered adding an small ENH to western OK, but there wasn`t sufficient confidence on where to place it. ...Maine... Thunderstorms are beginning to develop along a cold front extending from NH into Quebec. Strong heating is occurring ahead of the front across ME, where a few severe storms are possible later today. See MCD #909 for further details. ...TN Valley... Strong heating is ongoing across parts of middle/east TN and central KY. Dewpoints near 70F will likely lead to a cluster of thunderstorms this afternoon. Forecast soundings show sufficient westerly flow aloft and steep low-level lapse rates to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Wendt.. 05/23/2024 $$