Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
053 FNUS22 KWNS 201933 FWDDY2 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. Confidence in the development of sustained critical conditions is highest over parts of northeastern NM, where the surface pressure gradient will be tightest on the western periphery of a lee cyclone. However, near-normal ERCs across this area (owing to rainfall during the last couple weeks) limits confidence in large-fire potential -- precluding Critical highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Moderate mid-level flow will remain across the Southwest on Tuesday with single-digit relative humidity across New Mexico. As deep mixing develops during the afternoon, some of this stronger flow will mix to the surface. In addition, a secondary lee cyclone is expected to develop in the TX/OK Panhandle vicinity. This will also aid in stronger surface winds. 15 to 25 mph sustained surface winds are expected across much of New Mexico. Locally critical conditions are probable and a Critical delineation may be needed at a later time, but for now, it is unclear where within the broader Elevated area, the greater threat may be. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$