Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
342 ACUS02 KWNS 281730 SWODY2 SPC AC 281728 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms posing a risk for severe hail and wind appear likely across the northern and central High Plains late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated strong storms will also be possible over parts of the southern Plains to lower Mississippi Valley, into the middle Rio Grande Valley. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough will pivot across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains, with 30-40 kt midlevel flow as far south as northern CO. A surface trough will deepen along the eastern borders of MT and WY during the day, with southeast surface winds helping to bring moisture northwestward toward the trough and developing cold front. To the south, a belt of modest westerlies will extend across the southern tier of states, with various convectively enhanced disturbances over parts of the southern Plains. Ample low-level moisture and thus instability will remain over the southern Plains into the lower MS valley, supporting clusters of thunderstorms across the broad warm advection zone roughly from KS/OK into LA/MS. ...Central and northern High Plains... Strong heating near the surface trough and increasing convergence will lead to a north-south zone of storms forming by 21Z from eastern MT southward across the CO Front Range. Strong to damaging outflow is expected, along with sporadic hail as deep-layer shear will not be particularly favorable. Storms from eastern CO into far northeast NM may have a slightly greater change of larger hail, along with a brief/weak tornado risk as southeast surface winds increase during the evening. ...From TX into the lower MS Valley... Scattered storms are expected from OK southeastward across the ArkLaTex, with the greatest coverage during the late afternoon. Locally damaging gusts or hail will be possible where storms are more concentrated. To the south, strong heating will lead to large instability and scattered storms from late afternoon through evening over parts of the middle Rio Grande Valley, southeast of Midland and toward Del Rio. Modest westerly flow aloft atop southeast surface winds along with moderate instability will favor hail and areas of strong gusts. Some models produce an MCS, but predictability is low for that scenario, and will defer possible Slight Risk upgrade for later outlooks. ..Jewell.. 05/28/2024 $$