048
ACUS03 KWNS 220730
SWODY3
SPC AC 220730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND THE OZARKS NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday from
eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks, northward to the southern Lake
Michigan vicinity.

...Eastern OK to southern Lake Michigan Vicinity...

Friday begins with shortwave upper ridging over the Upper Great
Lakes vicinity. This ridge will dampen as it shifts east toward the
lower Great Lakes and a shortwave upper trough over the northern
Plains develops east to the Upper Midwest. To the south across the
southern Plains to the TN Valley vicinity, low-amplitude westerly
flow around 30-40 kt will prevail. At the surface, low pressure over
the eastern Dakotas will lift northward into Manitoba/western
Ontario while a cold front progresses eastward across the mid/upper
MS Valley and portions of the Ozarks.

A seasonally moist airmass will be in place with low to mid 60s F
dewpoints across parts of the Lake Michigan vicinity, increasing
with southwest extent into OK/AR (upper 60s/low 70s F). Moderate to
strong destabilization is expected, aided by steepening midlevel
lapse rates. While stronger large-scale ascent will be focused over
the Upper Midwest, the progressive cold front will be a focus for
thunderstorm development through the period. Vertical shear will be
modest, with deep-layer flow mostly parallel to the front. Clusters
of thunderstorms pose a risk for strong/damaging gusts and possibly
hail. Given a lack of stronger height falls until the nighttime
hours and limited large-scale ascent with southward extent, severe
thunderstorm coverage and evolution is a bit uncertain. Greater
severe probabilities may become necessary in later outlooks if a
corridor of greater potential becomes apparent as mesoscale details
become better resolved.

...TN Valley to the Carolinas...

A very moist and unstable airmass will be in place on Friday.
Low-amplitude westerly flow will overspread the region, with
large-scale ascent somewhat nebulous. There is some potential that a
convectively enhanced vorticity maxima from remnant convection in
the Day 2/Thu period will float through westerly flow. If this
occurs, this could provide a focus for more organized convection in
a weakly sheared environment. Uncertainty and the conditional nature
of the threat at this time frame precludes severe probabilities, but
strong storms are a possibility.

..Leitman.. 05/22/2024

$$