Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
592 ACUS03 KWNS 250728 SWODY3 SPC AC 250727 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...THE EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE...MUCH OF MARYLAND...VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may develop Monday afternoon, and overspread much of the Mid Atlantic accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts into Monday evening. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that mid/upper flow will undergo amplification across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into North America into and through this period. Monday into Monday night, this is forecast to include digging troughing offshore of the Pacific Northwest coast, to the south of a broad low developing over the northeastern Pacific, and downstream ridging building across and to the east of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies. Farther downstream, it appears that larger-scale troughing will continue to evolve east of the upper Mississippi Valley into the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard. One significant embedded short wave may pivot north-northeast of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, accompanied by a relatively compact, but deep surface cyclone. A trailing perturbation is forecast to pivot eastward and northeastward through the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes region, with increasingly difluent and divergent upper flow likely overspreading the Mid Atlantic region during the late afternoon and evening. While surface troughing deepens to the lee of the Blue Ridge during the day in response to this forcing, a cold front trailing the cyclone likely will advance toward the Appalachians, as well as into the Gulf States, before progressing into the Atlantic Seaboard Monday night. ...Mid Atlantic... Remnants of a plume of elevated mixed-layer air may overspread the southern through middle Atlantic Seaboard during the day, in advance of the approaching short wave trough. This may contribute to moderately large CAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg, where surface dew points remain in the mid 60s to near 70F within the deepening surface troughing. As a 50+ kt mid-level jet noses northeast of the southern Appalachians, strengthening deep-layer shear and mean wind fields will contribute to an environment potentially conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development. This could include a risk for supercells, at least initially, but pre-frontal convection developing along or across the Appalachians may evolve into an increasingly organized line while spreading east of the Blue Ridge late Monday afternoon and evening. As this occurs, severe wind gusts will probably become the primary potential hazard after initial, more discrete storms pose a risk for severe hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a risk for a tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 05/25/2024 $$