091
ACUS03 KWNS 310725
SWODY3
SPC AC 310723

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern and
central Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday.

...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
A fast-moving, low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move
from the Intermountain West through the northern/central Plains and
into the Upper Midwest on Sunday. Surface troughing is expected to
deepen across the northern and central Plains ahead of this
shortwave, while an associated surface low moves northeastward from
western SD into far northwestern Ontario. A cold front attendant to
this low will likely push eastward/southeastward across the
northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest.

Steep mid-level lapse rates are expected to spread into
northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest ahead of the approaching
shortwave trough. Modest low-level moisture advection is anticipated
ahead of this shortwave as well, with the resulting combination of
low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates supporting
airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy ahead of the cold
front. Thunderstorm development is expected from the Dakotas through
NE and into northwestern KS as the cold front interacts with this
destabilized airmass. Vertical shear will be relatively modest, but
likely still strong enough to support organized storm structures as
the thunderstorm quickly grow upscale. General expectation is for an
organized convective line to move from the central Dakotas into the
Upper Midwest. Southern and eastern extent of this line are
uncertain, with the southern extent limited by warm mid-level
temperatures and the eastern extent limited by the persistence of a
cooler, more stable airmass.

...Southern High Plains...
Isolated thunderstorms are also possible farther south across the
southern High Plains along the dryline. Large-scale forcing for
ascent will nebulous and mid-level temperatures will be warm, but
strong heating and moderate low-level convergence along the dryline
could still result in convective initiation. Any storms that do
develop could produce large hail and damaging gusts.

...OH/TN Valleys into the Southeast...
Farther east, northeastward progression of a weakening shortwave
trough and associated surface low will aid in thunderstorm
development across the OH Valley. Airmass destabilization is also
anticipated across much of the Southeast, with afternoon
thunderstorm development likely. Weak shear should mitigate overall
storm strength in both areas.

..Mosier.. 05/31/2024

$$