180
FXUS63 KEAX 240915
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
415 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Weakening line of thunderstorms will move through portions of
  NW Missouri this morning. A few marginally severe wind gusts
  will be possible.

- A few strong storms may be possible this afternoon toward
  northeastern and central Missouri.

- Another round of strong to severe storms is likely late
  Saturday night into early Sunday morning.

- Conditional threat for strong to severe storms on Sunday
  afternoon, especially toward northeastern and central
  Missouri.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Warm air advection driven discrete storms developed over
northern Missouri around 1 AM, with these storms producing large
hail likely up to the size of golf balls per radar analysis
(only received one report of quarters in Putnam County, however,
due to time of day and the storms occurring over rural areas).
These storms have finally lifted north of the Iowa border.
Meanwhile, the far southern end of a severe squall line over
western Iowa into the far southeastern tip of Nebraska is
approaching far NW Missouri as of 330 AM, with 60 mph wind gusts
possible (although it appears that these are weakening as the
enter into Missouri). Would expect the aforementioned line of
storms over NW Missouri to continue to weaken as they move east.
The cold front should finally move through the KC metro by
around 10 am, with some isolated to scattered showers possible
along the front. By early afternoon, the front should extend
approximately from Kirksville to Sedalia. With daytime heating
yielding moderate instability, a few stronger storms could
develop along the front, but these would quickly move eastward,
departing our county warning area into WFO St. Louis` and WFO
Springfield`s area. High temperatures this afternoon should
range from the mid 70s over NW Missouri to as warm as the lower
80s over central Missouri thanks to the much slower arrival of
the cold front.

Attention then turns to Saturday evening/night. West southwest
flow at 500 mb remains in place. Another mid level perturbation
comes out of the Desert Southwest into the Southern Plains, with
a band of 50 to 60 knot 50 mb winds nosing into the region by
Saturday evening. Meanwhile, a surface low develops and deepens
over western Kansas with a warm front lifting northward through
Missouri, with models projecting it to be roughly oriented along
Interstate 70 by midnight Sunday morning. Strong theta e
advection will move into the region as the warm front lifts
northward, with mid to even upper 60s dewpoints moving into the
region. Additionally, a very strong SSW oriented low level jet
is progged to develop and move over the region by late Saturday
evening. Discrete supercells are likely to develop by late
Saturday afternoon/early evening over central Oklahoma into
central Kansas, with these likely growing upscale into clusters
or even a full blown MCS by late Saturday evening as they
approach our region from the west. These storms will likely move
through our region from west to east in the overnight (after
midnight) into the early morning hours of Sunday. As of now, SPC
has an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) into the KC metro for
damaging thunderstorm wind gusts (30% risk area), with lower
probabilities for large hail (15%) and even lower for tornadoes
(2%). There will also be a risk for locally moderate to heavy
rainfall. Additional development of storms will be possible on
Sunday afternoon, especially toward central and northeastern
Missouri. However, the overall evolution of the convection from
early Sunday morning will likely play a large role in how
exactly things play out on Sunday afternoon.

The active weather pattern should finally become more tranquil
after Sunday, with afternoon high temperatures generally in the
mid 70s to lower 80s with generally dry conditions prevailing
for Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

VFR conds are with bkn cigs btn 4-6kft will prevail thru
11Z-12Z. Btn 11Z-15Z...a line of storms will move thru the TAF
site with ocnl MVFR cigs/vis. Aft 15Z...bkn cigs btn 4-5kft are
expected thru 20Z-22Z before scattering out. Winds will be out
of the south btn 10-15kts with gusts 20-25kts to begin the TAF
pd but will shift to the SW by 10Z-12Z. Btn 16Z-18Z a cold front
will move thru the TAF sites shifting winds to the WNW btn
10-15kts with gusts to 20kts before dmshg to 5-10kts aft
21Z-23Z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMW
AVIATION...73