Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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256 FXUS63 KEAX 230421 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1121 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mild conditions with temperatures in the mid 70s today. - Another system of strong to severe storms is expected to move through the region late Thursday into Friday. The most likely hazard is damaging winds; however, large hail and isolated tornadoes are also possible. - More chances for thunderstorms arrive over the weekend. Once again, strong to severe storms are possible. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 317 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 After another active evening yesterday, a quiet day is expected today. Northwest flow on the backside of the low and midlevel ridging has brought generally calmer weather to the area. A subtle shortwave passed through this morning bringing some sprinkles and showers to the region. Zonal flow aloft and clearer skies today keep highs in the mid 70s. Winds turn out of the south overnight advecting some warmer air northward pushing highs Thursday into the 80s. Unfortunately, our break from the active weather is short lived as another wave of showers and thunderstorms looks to enter the region Thursday. Fortunately, most of the daytime hours look dry sans a couple of isolated showers across the southern portion of the coverage area. A leeward cyclone is anticipated to develop across the northern Rockies. Strong to severe storms are expected to form across southern SD and NE assembling into a line during the evening hours. This complex of storms works its way southeast into the area overnight. There has been consensus across model guidance with the time of arrival of these storms being after midnight Friday continuing through the region after sunrise Friday morning. Where models diverge is the expected storm mode with some suggesting a compact linear system versus a more broad scale MCS. Long range, higher resolution CAMs have been suggesting the more QLCS orientation versus the broader scale MCS proposed by the coarser deterministic models. Short term high res models will help build confidence once they come into range overnight tonight into tomorrow morning. Regardless, both presentations bring chances for strong to severe storms overnight Thursday into Friday. All severe hazards are possible with damaging winds being the most likely hazards. Hail and tornadoes are also possible with the tornado threat potentially being higher should the storms maintain more QLCS characteristics. Heavy rainfall is also likely; however, storm motions do look fast enough that flash flooding remains limited; however, additional rainfall into local basins may raise creeks and rivers slightly. A stout ridge builds across the central CONUS Friday evening lasting into Saturday bringing another break in the rain for the morning into the early afternoon. However, the transient weather pattern continues with a LLJ quickly advecting warm air and moisture across the central Plains. A strong shortwave trough swiftly ejects an area of positive vorticity advection into the central Plains resulting in a rapidly developing cyclone across eastern CO Saturday afternoon and evening. This area of lift quickly enters the conveyor of warm air and moisture across central KS initiating showers and thunderstorms. Once again, convective parameters show a favorable environment for severe weather with all hazards possible. Several uncertainties remain with more minute details; however, the synoptic conceptual model, echoed by the SPC Day 4, suggests the potential for strong to severe storms. Depending on the speed of the cyclone, strong to severe storm chances may linger through Sunday for areas east of US-65. The Memorial Day holiday looks mostly dry, some guidance points at another decaying MCS moving into the region overnight into Tuesday, but uncertainty remains high at this time. The extended forecast shows strong NW flow and low level high pressure settling things down early next week. Temperatures look to remain seasonal as mid level southerly flow and daytime heating compete against cooler upper level NW flow. The pattern continues to remain active albeit the frequency of storms systems does look to decrease as June approaches. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1121 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 VFR conds are expected thru the pd with clr skies expected thru the overnight and increasing high clouds thru the day. Aft 02Z-04Z cigs around 5kft are expected to build into the TAF sites. Winds will be light out of the SE thru 15Z aft which they will increase to 8-15kts. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Pesel AVIATION...73