020
FXUS63 KEAX 251137
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
637 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms are likely to impact the region late
  tonight into early Sunday morning. All severe hazards will be
  possible, as well as locally heavy rainfall.

- Another round of strong to severe storms will be possible on
  Sunday afternoon, primarily toward central Missouri.

- Quieter weather arrives for Monday through Wednesday, with
  seasonal temperatures and relatively low humidity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Currently clear and calm across the region with temperatures in
the 50s to around 60 degrees as surface high pressure is sitting
over the area. A pleasant day is expected for the daytime hours
today with high temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to lower
80s for most locations, along with generally low humidity at
least through mid afternoon.

By this afternoon, a moderately amplified mid/upper level trough
with embedded perturbations moves out of the Desert Southwest
and ejects across the Southern Plains, with 50 to 60 knot WSW
winds at 500 mb overspreading the Southern Plains. Meanwhile, by
this evening, a very strong low level jet should develop over
the area. At the surface, a low will develop off the Front
Range, deepening as it moves into western Kansas by late
afternoon with a warm front extending to the east. With the
deepening low and the northward lifting warm front, strong
theta-e advection will move into our area from south to north,
with mid to upper 60 dewpoints by midnight for areas along and
south of the warm front, which looks to be generally oriented
near Interstate 70 at this time. With the pairing of impressive
wind shear and moderate to high instability, a high impact
severe weather outbreak is likely today across much of north
Texas, Oklahoma, and southern Kansas, with damaging wind gusts
and exceptionally large hail possible this afternoon with
initial storms. This evening once the aforementioned low level
jet ramps up, a significant tornado threat is possible over
these same areas. Thankfully, the higher threat area will remain
west of our county warning area, but high impact severe weather
is still very much possible for far eastern Kansas into western
and eventually central Missouri.

06z CAMs have been a little slower with convective initiation,
with the 6z HRRR suggesting robust, deep convection not
initiating over central Kansas until around 10 pm tonight.
These storms will likely grow upscale into clusters/linear
bowing segments or potentially a full blown MCS as they progress
further east toward our area tonight as forcing increases and
storm outflows merge. These storms will likely move into our row
of Kansas counties in the 1-2 AM time frame, with storms
exiting to the east of the county warning area by around 6-7 AM.
Severe weather is most likely along and south of Interstate 70
as that seems to be where the warm front will generally reside,
with elevated and less severe convection north of the warm
front. Given the messier storm modes, severe wind gusts up to
60-70 mph will be the primary threat. However, given the strong
low level jet, low level wind shear and hodographs will support
a solid tornado threat, especially for areas south and southwest
of Kansas City. Despite a decent percentage of our CWA within a
hatched hail region from SPC, messy storm modes will likely
keep the very large hail risk tempered. Another concern will be
the risk for locally heavy rainfall. 06z CAMs suggest the
possibility of a swath of 3-4 inches of rain across our southern
tier or two of counties (Miami and Linn in Kansas; Cass, Bates,
Henry in Missouri), with flash flooding and river flooding
possible on some of our smaller streams and rivers.

Another round of strong to severe storms is possible Sunday
afternoon, with CAMs initiating storms across central Missouri by
around 4-5 pm, with these quickly exiting east into WFO St.
Louis and WFO Springfield`s area. However, this will likely be
dependent upon how the convection from Sunday morning evolves.
Additionally, there could be some isolated strong storms further
west behind the surface cold front on Sunday afternoon, with
marginally large hail being the primary threat with these thanks
to steep mid level lapse rates.

Quieter weather arrives by Monday. A couple of mid/upper level
troughs descend out of Canada and into the Upper Midwest,
pivoting toward the Great Lakes region on Monday and Tuesday,
keeping us under northwest flow aloft sending a couple of weak
back door cold fronts through the region. This will help keep
temperatures near seasonal normals as well as keep humidity
levels relatively comfortable with dewpoints in the low to mid
50s through Wednesday.

As we head into Thursday and Friday, troughing moves into the
western CONUS, and will increase southerly low level return
flow, bringing in increased moisture and chances for showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 629 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Fog has reduced VSBY to LIFR at STJ, but the KC terminals are
currently VFR under generally clear skies with light winds as
surface high pressure is over the area. Fog at STJ should mix
out by around 13z/14z. Southeasterly winds should increase a bit
at the KC metro terminals by mid afternoon as a warm front lifts
northward. Showers and thunderstorms will likely impact the
terminals sometime in the 7z to 11z time frame Sunday morning.
These storms could bring heavy rain (IFR VSBY), brief wind
gusts up to 60 mph, and hail to the terminals.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMW
AVIATION...BMW