112
FXUS63 KEAX 241137
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
637 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Weakening line of thunderstorms will move through portions of
  NW Missouri this morning. A few marginally severe wind gusts
  will be possible.

- A few strong storms may be possible this afternoon toward
  northeastern and central Missouri.

- Another round of strong to severe storms is likely late
  Saturday night into early Sunday morning.

- Conditional threat for strong to severe storms on Sunday
  afternoon, especially toward northeastern and central
  Missouri.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Warm air advection driven discrete storms developed over
northern Missouri around 1 AM, with these storms producing large
hail likely up to the size of golf balls per radar analysis
(only received one report of quarters in Putnam County, however,
due to time of day and the storms occurring over rural areas).
These storms have finally lifted north of the Iowa border.
Meanwhile, the far southern end of a severe squall line over
western Iowa into the far southeastern tip of Nebraska is
approaching far NW Missouri as of 330 AM, with 60 mph wind gusts
possible (although it appears that these are weakening as the
enter into Missouri). Would expect the aforementioned line of
storms over NW Missouri to continue to weaken as they move east.
The cold front should finally move through the KC metro by
around 10 am, with some isolated to scattered showers possible
along the front. By early afternoon, the front should extend
approximately from Kirksville to Sedalia. With daytime heating
yielding moderate instability, a few stronger storms could
develop along the front, but these would quickly move eastward,
departing our county warning area into WFO St. Louis` and WFO
Springfield`s area. High temperatures this afternoon should
range from the mid 70s over NW Missouri to as warm as the lower
80s over central Missouri thanks to the much slower arrival of
the cold front.

Attention then turns to Saturday evening/night. West southwest
flow at 500 mb remains in place. Another mid level perturbation
ejects out of the Desert Southwest into the Southern Plains,
with a band of 50 to 60 knot 50 mb winds nosing into the region
by Saturday evening. Meanwhile, a surface low develops and
deepens over western Kansas with a warm front lifting northward
through Missouri, with models projecting it to be roughly
oriented along Interstate 70 by late Saturday evening. Strong
theta e advection will move into the area as the warm front
lifts northward, with mid to even upper 60s dewpoints moving
northward behind the warm front. Additionally, a very strong
SSW oriented low level jet is progged to develop and move over
the area by late Saturday evening. Discrete supercells are
likely to develop by late Saturday afternoon/early evening over
central Oklahoma into central Kansas, with these likely growing
upscale into clusters or even a full blown MCS by late Saturday
evening as they approach our region from the west. These storms
will likely move through the area from west to east in the
overnight (after midnight) into the early morning hours of
Sunday. As of now, SPC has an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) into
the KC metro for damaging thunderstorm wind gusts (30% risk
area), with lower probabilities for large hail (15%) and even
lower for tornadoes (2%). There will also be a risk for locally
moderate to heavy rainfall. Additional development of storms
will be possible on Sunday afternoon, especially toward central
and northeastern Missouri. However, the overall evolution of the
convection from early Sunday morning will likely play a large
role in how exactly things play out on Sunday afternoon.

The active weather pattern should finally become more tranquil
after Sunday, with afternoon high temperatures generally in the
mid 70s to lower 80s with generally dry conditions prevailing
for Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 626 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing near STJ and
MCI, with these lingering through around 14z to 15z this morning
before finally clearing out. Additionally, MVFR ceilings are
in place at the KC metro terminals, but CIGs should improve to
VFR also by around 15z this morning. After this, VFR conditions
should prevail through the period. Light SSW winds this morning
will eventually become northwesterly and increase slightly
behind a passing cold front by early afternoon. Winds should
turn easterly and become light (7 knots or less) by early
Saturday morning.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMW
AVIATION...BMW