Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
856 FXUS66 KEKA 302220 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 320 PM PDT Thu May 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS...A warming trend will continue through this week with the hottest inland valleys reaching the upper 90s by Friday. A regular cycle of stratus and gusty afternoon onshore winds will persist for the coast until Sunday. Monday shows rain arriving to the northern counties in a quickly moving system with rain focused on Del Norte County. Later next week, temperatures are going to easily be above normal from the interior to the coast. && .DISCUSSION...High pressure ridging continues to build in today, with resulting breezy northerly winds and warming inland temperatures. The high will further strengthen Friday when temperatures in the interior valleys will reach 90 to 95. Moisture will increase Friday night when a shortwave trough moves in from the west. There will be increasing moisture with this system, bringing back the stratus, patchy fog, and likely coastal drizzle Friday night. Behind the shortwave, a seasonably anomalous NE Pacific low will drive into the PAC NW to deliver late season rainfall for the northern half of the forecast area. There is growing probability for meaningful rainfall with the system for Humboldt and especially Del Norte counties (40 to 50 % for over 0.5 inch). Model sounding are currently resolving high precipitable water values Monday (up to 1.60 inches). This will support brief high precip rates, especially in Del Norte County, though the rainfall totals will not be impactful and will be rather beneficial. Rainfall amounts will very quickly drop off south and east of Humboldt County. After this brief rain event, temperatures all over our area will be on a steep rise. Interior temperatures are expected to be around 90 on Tuesday then bump up to just shy of 100 on Wednesday and Thursday. Personally, I wouldn`t be surprised at all if we see out first 100 degree days of the year in the middle of next week as NBM is already showing a 60-70% chance of 100+ degrees for Ukiah on Wednesday and Thursday. Winds during these days of extreme heat are currently forecasted to peak on ridgetops at around 20 mph. On the coast we have a chance of seeing unseasonably warm temperatures as well. Eureka and Fort Bragg are both showing temperatures in the mid- high 60s by the second half of next week. This event is 6-7 days away, yet ensemble guidance is in high agreement which is leading to the increased levels of confidence in the forecast at this time. DS/JJW && .AVIATION...A ridge continues to build into the region through the end of the work week. For this TAF period, this means strong northerly to northwesterly winds at coastal terminals. Most places will see a relief in these winds into this evening and overnight; however, it is very likely that gusty winds will persist along the Del Norte Coast. Occasional gusts to 40 knots could occur at CEC this afternoon with 20 to 30 knot gusts possible overnight. This means that conditions will most likely remain VFR with little likelihood of any stratus development. As the winds push off the coast for areas further south, winds will become light and generally offshore. So, it will be unlikely for extensive stratus to form at ACV. Early into the morning some scattered low clouds could develop around Humboldt Bay, but they will quickly be mixed out after sunrise as the winds pick back up again, though they will not be as strong as today. Conditions for most inland terminals will remain VFR. UKI could see winds close to 10 knots this afternoon. /JLW && .MARINE...High pressure continues to build along the coast of Northwest California. Gale force gusts will continue into late Friday, especially for the outer waters. The southern inner waters will see gale gusts into late this evening. Steep waves are expanding as a result. Into this evening gale force gusts could creep into the northern inner waters, but will mainly be limited to areas north of Trinidad. The hi-resolution models are in good agreement on an area of weaker winds off of Humboldt Bay. Tonight and Friday these stronger winds are expected to push off the coast slightly. For the weekend an upper level trough is expected to weaken the winds by Saturday. The winds may even become briefly southerly in the northern waters. Sunday a northwest swell around 10 seconds will be the main wave. Initially it is expected to be around 3 feet, but will build to around 6 feet at 10 seconds by Tuesday. Sunday night or early Monday these winds are expected to switch back to northerly once again. Monday and Tuesday it looks like the northerly winds will increase some, but not get all that strong. Mid to late in the week high pressure builds back in and northerly winds will increase once again. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ450. Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for PZZ455. Gale Warning until 10 PM PDT Friday for PZZ470-475. && $$ Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png