131
FXUS66 KEKA 291211
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
511 AM PDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A warming trend will kick off this week with the hottest
inland valleys reaching the upper 90s late this week. A regular
cycle of stratus and gusty afternoon onshore flow will persist for
the coast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure is building in today and will
continue to do so through Friday. This will bring hot temperatures
back to the interior with NBM even showing a 25% chance of 95 degree
highs in the very hottest valleys in Trinity County on Friday.
Combined with dry air behind the trough, such conditions will
continue to dry interior fuels through the weekend. Building high
pressure will also support a usual cycle of nighttime marine stratus
with gusty north winds pushing on shore and helping to mix out
clouds each afternoon. Onshore winds will mostly likely be strongest
this afternoon with gusts upwards of around 35-40 mph around the
coastal headlands in Del Norte and Northern Humboldt. Winds on other
parts of the coast are forecasted to be between 20-30 mph. This flow
will flip throughout the night and be more offshore from the
northeast on Thursday morning before gusting onshore again in the
afternoon.

Cluster ensemble members show another series of troughs digging
across the Pacific Northwest late in the weekend through early next
week. Model ensembles are in high general agreement of a
relatively weak trough, or shortwave ripple, sneaking over the
area. There is NBM which would bring cooler and more moist
weather, especially to the coast. NBM is even showing
probabilities of wetting rain (>0.1") at a 75% along the Del Norte
and at 40-65% in northern Humboldt Coast, as well as 15-40% in
northern Trinity Co. for Monday afternoon. The very highest end
models show light rain of up to 0.3 inches, yet these are the most
extreme cases as of right now. A most likely scenario will come
into better focus as models continue to evolve late this week.
DS/JHW

&&

.AVIATION....The upper level trough has moved through and high
pressure is starting to build into the area. This is starting to
increase winds across the area and a breezy afternoon is expected.
Some stratus is in the valleys of Humboldt county, but KACV has
cleared out. It is possible they will still see a few hours of MFR
ceilings, but this is looking less likely. The northwest winds are
expected to be strong this across the whole area this afternoon. CEC
is expected to see gusts close to 40 KT. Tonight winds will be slow
to diminish, but will eventually. Skies are expected to remain
mainly clear tonight. MKK

&&

.MARINE...The upper level trough has moved through and high
pressure is starting to build into the area. This is starting to
increase winds across the area and a breezy afternoon is expected.
Winds are increasing first south of Cape Mendocino and then
spreading north tonight. Models are in good agreement on gale force
winds in the outer waters and southern inner waters. It looks like
conditions will be lighter in the northern inner waters, but still
breezy. These winds are expected to remain strong on Thursday.
Friday the winds push a bit farther off the coast, but remain near
gale or gale in the outer zones. For the weekend a trough moving
through is expected to diminish the winds, especially north of Cape
Mendocino. The seas will mainly be steep wind driven waves through
Friday. MKK

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
     Saturday for PZZ450.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for
     PZZ455.

     Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT Thursday
     for PZZ455.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to midnight
     PDT tonight for PZZ470.

     Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 10 PM PDT Friday for
     PZZ470.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for
     PZZ475.

     Gale Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PDT Friday
     for PZZ475.

&&

$$

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https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png