385
FXUS66 KEKA 292153
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
253 PM PDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A warming trend will continue through this week with the
hottest inland valleys reaching the upper 90s by late this week. A
regular cycle of stratus and gusty afternoon onshore flow will
persist for the coast.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A ridge in the Northeast Pacific will continue to build
into the region through the end of the week. This will bring hot
temperatures back to the interior with NBM even showing a 25% chance
of 95 degree highs in the very hottest valleys of Trinity County by
Friday. Plenty of dry air has been ushered in with the building
ridge which will continue to dry interior fuels through the
weekend. Building high pressure will also support a usual cycle of
nighttime marine stratus with gusty north winds pushing on shore
and helping to mix out clouds each afternoon. Onshore winds will
most likely be strongest this afternoon and evening with gusts
upwards of around 35-40 mph around the coastal headlands in Del
Norte and Northern Humboldt. Wind gusts on other parts of the
coast are forecasted to be between 20-30 mph. This flow will flip
throughout the night and be more offshore from the northeast on
Thursday morning before gusting onshore again in the afternoon.

Ensemble clusters indicate that a troughing pattern may set up late
in the weekend and into next week. The ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index
(EFI) indicates a decently high signal for more precipitation than
average from Sunday and into Monday. This likely will have minimal
impacts on the region with the National Blend of Models (NBM)
indicating a 50 to 60 percent chance of wetting rain (>0.1 inches)
for Del Norte County and a 20 to 40 percent chance in northern
Humboldt County. However, details will become more clear as the
models update and we get closer to the event.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions (only high thin cirrus) prevailed over all the TAF
sites and across the region today. There were pockets of MVFR
stratus along the Humboldt Coast during the wee hours of the
morning. High pressure is starting to build over the coastal areas
even as a thermal trough intensifies overland...and then shift
offshore. Interaction between high and low pressures will be the
catalyst for daytime gusty northerlies through Thursday. Tonight
winds will be slow to diminish, but will eventually die down around
midnight. Most model data is in agreement with keeping skies mainly
clear overnight/morning, although a few isolated pockets of fog
could occur in an interior valley or near the coast...but that
expectation is very low. /TA


&&

.MARINE...An offshore ridge building into the region will tighten the
inland thermal trough gradient and continue to enhance offshore
winds this afternoon into Thursday. Gale conditions observed in the
southern inner waters expected to build on already enhanced
conditions in the southern waters before expanding north early
Thursday. Rapid wind wave response expected Thursday afternoon into
Friday, with wave heights forecasted to reach 13 feet at 10 seconds
in the outer waters by early Friday. Model guidance anticipates a
weak trough pattern developing this weekend, effectively inhibiting
the expansion fans downwind of Port Orford and Cape Mendocino. Seas
expected to quickly follow suit as a nearshore westerly swell
traverses the waters.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ450.

     Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ455.

     Small Craft Advisory until midnight PDT tonight for PZZ470.

     Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 10 PM PDT Friday for
     PZZ470.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for
     PZZ475.

     Gale Warning until 10 PM PDT Friday for PZZ475.

&&

$$

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