856
FXUS66 KEKA 302220
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
320 PM PDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A warming trend will continue through this week with
the hottest inland valleys reaching the upper 90s by Friday. A
regular cycle of stratus and gusty afternoon onshore winds will
persist for the coast until Sunday. Monday shows rain arriving to
the northern counties in a quickly moving system with rain focused
on Del Norte County. Later next week, temperatures are going to
easily be above normal from the interior to the coast.


&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure ridging continues to build in today,
with resulting breezy northerly winds and warming inland
temperatures. The high will further strengthen Friday when
temperatures in the interior valleys will reach 90 to 95.
Moisture will increase Friday night when a shortwave trough moves
in from the west. There will be increasing moisture with this
system, bringing back the stratus, patchy fog, and likely coastal
drizzle Friday night.

Behind the shortwave, a seasonably anomalous NE Pacific low will
drive into the PAC NW to deliver late season rainfall for the
northern half of the forecast area. There is growing probability
for meaningful rainfall with the system for Humboldt and
especially Del Norte counties (40 to 50 % for over 0.5 inch).
Model sounding are currently resolving high precipitable water
values Monday (up to 1.60 inches). This will support brief high
precip rates, especially in Del Norte County, though the rainfall
totals will not be impactful and will be rather beneficial.
Rainfall amounts will very quickly drop off south and east of
Humboldt County.

After this brief rain event, temperatures all over our area will be
on a steep rise. Interior temperatures are expected to be around 90
on Tuesday then bump up to just shy of 100 on Wednesday and
Thursday. Personally, I wouldn`t be surprised at all if we see
out first 100 degree days of the year in the middle of next week
as NBM is already showing a 60-70% chance of 100+ degrees for
Ukiah on Wednesday and Thursday. Winds during these days of
extreme heat are currently forecasted to peak on ridgetops at
around 20 mph. On the coast we have a chance of seeing unseasonably
warm temperatures as well. Eureka and Fort Bragg are both showing
temperatures in the mid- high 60s by the second half of next
week. This event is 6-7 days away, yet ensemble guidance is in
high agreement which is leading to the increased levels of
confidence in the forecast at this time. DS/JJW


&&

.AVIATION...A ridge continues to build into the region through the end
of the work week. For this TAF period, this means strong northerly
to northwesterly winds at coastal terminals. Most places will see a
relief in these winds into this evening and overnight; however, it
is very likely that gusty winds will persist along the Del Norte
Coast. Occasional gusts to 40 knots could occur at CEC this
afternoon with 20 to 30 knot gusts possible overnight. This means
that conditions will most likely remain VFR with little likelihood
of any stratus development. As the winds push off the coast for
areas further south, winds will become light and generally offshore.
So, it will be unlikely for extensive stratus to form at ACV. Early
into the morning some scattered low clouds could develop around
Humboldt Bay, but they will quickly be mixed out after sunrise as
the winds pick back up again, though they will not be as strong as
today. Conditions for most inland terminals will remain VFR. UKI
could see winds close to 10 knots this afternoon. /JLW


&&

.MARINE...High pressure continues to build along the coast of
Northwest California. Gale force gusts will continue into late
Friday, especially for the outer waters. The southern inner waters
will see gale gusts into late this evening. Steep waves are
expanding as a result. Into this evening gale force gusts could
creep into the northern inner waters, but will mainly be limited to
areas north of Trinidad. The hi-resolution models are in good
agreement on an area of weaker winds off of Humboldt Bay. Tonight
and Friday these stronger winds are expected to push off the coast
slightly.

For the weekend an upper level trough is expected to weaken the
winds by Saturday. The winds may even become briefly southerly in
the northern waters. Sunday a northwest swell around 10 seconds will
be the main wave. Initially it is expected to be around 3 feet, but
will build to around 6 feet at 10 seconds by Tuesday.

Sunday night or early Monday these winds are expected to switch back
to northerly once again. Monday and Tuesday it looks like the
northerly winds will increase some, but not get all that strong. Mid
to late in the week high pressure builds back in and northerly winds
will increase once again.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ450.

     Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for PZZ455.

     Gale Warning until 10 PM PDT Friday for PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

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