161
AXPZ20 KNHC 251520
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat May 25 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from a 1010 mb low pressure located
over northern Colombia near 10N74W to 10N90W to 08N102W to
10N114W to 07N127W. The ITCZ continues from 07N127W to beyond
06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen
from 07N to 10N between 93W and 100W, from 04N to 09N between
100W and 106W, and from 05N to 08N between 122W and 132W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge continues to dominate the offshore waters of Baja California
while lower pressure are noted over central Mexico. This pattern
is supporting moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds off Baja
California where combined seas are 5 to 7 ft with a component of
NW swell. Fresh SW winds are blowing over the northern Gulf of
California, associated with a trough moving across the lower Colorado
River Valley. Light to gentle breezes are noted elsewhere with 3
to 5 ft combined seas primarily in SW swell.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds and moderate NW swell
will persist through mid week off Baja California mainly north
of Cabo San Lazaro between weak ridging to the west and lower
pressure over central Mexico. Light to gentle breezes will
persist elsewehre. Hazy conditions may persist off Chiapas and
Oaxaca due to agricultural fires over southern Mexico.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light breezes persist north of the monsoon trough along roughly
10N, with gentle to moderate S to SW breezes farther south.
Combined seas are 3 to 5 ft in SW swell. No significant shower
or thunderstorm activity is evident. Hazy conditions may be
ongoing over the near shore waters from Guatemala to Nicaragua
due to mostly agricultural fires onshore.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate S to SW winds will persist south
of the monsoon trough with axis along roughly 10N while light to
gentle winds are expected north of it through mid week. Light
haze from smoke caused by agricultural fires over Mexico could
reduce visibilities over portions of the Central America offshore
waters through the next few days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge dominates most of the waters N of 10N and W of 110W. This
pattern is supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds N of the
ITCZ and W of 130W, and mainly moderate N to NE winds N of the
ITCZ/Monsoon Trough between 110W and 130W. Combined seas have
been diminishing over the past several hours, with the only
pocket reaching 8 ft near 10N140W along the area of moderate to
fresh trade winds. Gentle breezes and moderate seas persist
elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will weaken some through the
weekend, allowing winds and combined seas to diminish slightly.
This will continue through early next week before the high
pressure strengthens once again. Little change is noted over the
remainder of the area through the early part of the week. Looking
ahead, a small and weak disturbance may develop along the monsoon
trough or ITCZ between 120W and 125W by mid week, accompanied by
fresh to strong winds and locally rough seas.

$$
GR