106
AXPZ20 KNHC 230910
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu May 23 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from near 11N86W to a 1010 mb low
pressure near 12N110W to 08N118W. The ITCZ extends from 08N118W
to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
02N to 17N and E of 120W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Broad ridging persists over the eastern Pacific north of 20N and
west of 115W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure
and lower pressure over central Mexico is giving way to moderate
to fresh N to NW winds across Baja California offshore waters.
Moderate to fresh SW winds are noted over the northern Gulf of
California, while light to gentle winds prevail over the
remainder of the Gulf. NW swell is bringing seas of 6 to 8 ft
north of Punta Eugenia, beyond 90 nm offshore impacting the
waters around Guadalupe Island. Elsewhere across the Mexico
offshore waters, light to gentle breezes persist. Seas are 2 to 4
ft at the entrance of the Gulf of California and northern half,
with seas to 2 ft across the rest of the Gulf. Seas range 5 to 6
ft along the southern Mexico offshore waters in SW swell. Smoke
from regional agricultural fires has spread medium haze across
the Oaxaca offshore waters near the coast and light haze across
the rest of the Mexico offshore waters. This could reduce
visibilities.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate
the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through the week.
Moderate to fresh NW to N winds over the Baja California
offshore waters will continue through Sun night. NW swell moving
across the Baja California Norte offshore waters will subside
below 8 ft today. Winds in the Gulf of California will prevail
moderate to fresh through Sat night as low pressure temporarily
deepens over the Colorado River Valley. Light to medium haze from
smoke caused by agricultural fires over Mexico could reduce
visibilities over the Mexico offshore waters through Thu.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered moderate convection continues to impact the southern
Central America offshore waters and Colombia, due in part to
converging SW winds farther offshore associated with the monsoon
trough. Moderate to fresh SW winds are evident south of 08N,
with light and variable winds north of 08N. Combined seas are 5
to 7 ft primarily in S to SW swell. Smoke from regional
agricultural fires persists across the Central America offshore
waters, as far south as northern Costa Rica. Medium haze can be
expected along the coast with light haze elsewhere. This could
reduce visibilities.

For the forecast, moderate to strong thunderstorms will continue
to pulse over the offshore waters from Costa Rica to Colombia
through Fri. For waters south of 08N, winds will be moderate to
fresh through Fri. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds will persist
south of 08N from Fri through early next week, with light to
gentle breezes north of 08N. Light to medium haze from smoke
caused by agricultural fires over Mexico could reduce visibilities
over portions of the Central America offshore waters through
tonight.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1010 mb low pressure area along the monsoon trough near 12N110W.
Moderate to fresh SW winds near the low are converging into the
monsoon trough between 100W and 111W. Combined seas in this area
are peaking to 7 ft. The convergent SW winds are also supporting
clusters of showers and thunderstorms within 150 to 200 nm of
the low.

Elsewhere, a ridge extends from 1036 mb high pressure centered
near 37N145W, southeastward toward the Revillagigedo Islands.
This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds north
of the ITCZ along 07N and west of 110W. NW to N swell of 8 to 9
ft is evident north of 28N between 120W and 140W. Combined seas
are 7 to 9 ft from 07N to 20N west of 130W. South of the ITCZ,
moderate to fresh SE winds are noted W of 130W. Gentle to
moderate breezes and moderate seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the low pressure area will dissipate as it
drifts northward to within 240 nm southeast of Socorro Island
today. Winds and seas will continue to subside today as a result
along with showers and thunderstorm activity weakening along the
monsoon trough. Elsewhere, the high pressure will weaken through
Fri, allowing winds and combined seas to diminish slightly,
including the large NW to N swell west of Baja California. This
will continue through early next week before the high pressure
strengthens once again. Little change is noted over the remainder
of the area.

$$
ERA