199
FXUS64 KEPZ 231812
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1212 PM MDT Thu May 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 146 AM MDT Thu May 23 2024

Warm, dry, and breezy weather through next weekend. Slight uptick
in winds Saturday afternoon. Dry weather will continue through the
rest of the month with warmer temperatures next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 146 AM MDT Thu May 23 2024

Prevailing southwest flow the next several days, keeping the
region dry and temperatures steady right near normal for late May.
Lowland highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s through next weekend,
with afternoon winds 10 to 20 mph out of the southwest. We`ll see
a slight uptick in winds today as the subtropical jet induces a
991mb lee surface low over SE Colorado and subsequent trough
through New Mexico. Even stronger jet streak forming over our area
on Saturday, with the GFS showing a 988mb low. Breezy afternoon
winds can be expected both today and Saturday, with gusts in the
30-40 mph range.

Main weather concern will be fire danger given the extremely dry
air, lack of precipitation, and breezy southwest winds. A Red Flag
Warning is in effect today and will likely be needed Saturday as
well.

Broad ridge developing over the US Southwest within the flow
aloft early next week, timed well with a surface high across the
Southern Plains and westward push of the dryline boundary into
eastern NM and far west TX (as far west as the Rio Grande
valley). The main impact this would have is warmer temperatures,
with lowland highs returning to the mid-to-upper 90s. Storm
chances will be closer to our eastern CWA boundary, but the
shallowness of atmospheric moisture and quick diurnal mixing will
greatly limit rain chances locally and likely keep any storms to
our east with more favorable instability resides. For now, very
low-end PoPs in Otero/Hudspeth Counties next Tuesday/Wednesday.
Most areas will remain dry through the end of the month.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1203 PM MDT Thu May 23 2024

VFR conditions through the period with SKC-SCT250. Surface winds
west 15-20G30 knots, diminishing after 04Z to west/southwest 7-10
knots. Few areas of blowing dust possible from 20Z-01Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 146 AM MDT Thu May 23 2024

Critical fire danger today as afternoon winds exceed critical
thresholds. Extremely dry conditions with single-digit humidity
area wide (3-9%). Southwest flow increasing during the early
afternoon hours to 15 to 25 mph. Red Flags issued for all zones
locally. Smoke ventilation becoming Excellent by the noon time
hour with transport to the east.

Very similar weather conditions day-to-day as stagnant dry,
southwest flow remains in place through the weekend. Additional
Red Flags will likely be needed again Saturday afternoon as winds
increase.

Rapid drying of fuels will continue this weekend due to the low
humidity, poor overnight recoveries, and breezy afternoon winds.
ERCs are near normal over Gila NF (60-75th percentile), but well
above normal across the southwest lowlands and Lincoln NF (75-98th
percentile). These numbers are forecast to increase quickly the
next few weeks as continued dry weather and favorable fire
conditions continue. Slight rain chances exist early next week
due to an intrusion of moisture from the east, but no beneficial
wetting rains are expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  93  64  93  66 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            88  58  88  58 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               91  56  91  58 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               88  52  89  57 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               64  43  67  45 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    88  55  89  56 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              78  49  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   89  51  90  53 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                87  52  88  54 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       90  60  90  62 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                91  55  92  54 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             94  57  94  56 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               84  57  84  58 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   93  59  93  60 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             88  55  89  57 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           89  63  90  64 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            87  51  88  54 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    89  51  91  55 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 89  57  90  59 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                86  54  88  57 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  77  49  80  52 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                76  46  77  49 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 74  45  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  79  46  82  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                84  51  87  54 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                87  49  88  52 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             79  45  81  46 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   82  46  84  48 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    86  50  87  50 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               81  51  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  82  49  83  52 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   88  50  88  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  87  52  89  54 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           86  51  89  53 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               81  51  82  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for TXZ055-056.

     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening for TXZ055-056.

NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ110>113.

     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening for NMZ110>113.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...17-Hefner