694
FXUS64 KEPZ 201127
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
527 AM MDT Mon May 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 316 AM MDT Mon May 20 2024

Warm, dry, and breezy conditions will be the theme through the
week. The combination of this during the month of May will promote
elevated to critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM MDT Mon May 20 2024

Overall, no changes from the previous forecast packages with breezy
afternoon winds and warm temperatures through the week.

For today, deep southwest flow will remain overhead with the
continuation of breezy winds. Fairly decent lee-side surface low
development will occur over east-central NM and western TX
Panhandle during the afternoon hours. This will promote sufficient
surface troughing across NM with tightening pressure gradient
across the forecast area. This, in combination with deep
afternoon mixing will lead to breezy winds this afternoon. Winds
will be W/SW at 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 30 to 40 mph. Dry air
with mostly clear skies will promote hot temperatures once again,
hot by middle to end of May standards, with temps ranging 4-7
degrees above the seasonal average. Breezy winds remain in place
on Tuesday with continued above average warmth.

Flow aloft flattens out and becomes more zonal for the second half
of the week. This means continued very dry conditions, afternoon
breezes, plenty of sunshine, and temperatures remaining above
average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 524 AM MDT Mon May 20 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period with skies SKC through
the morning, becoming FEW-SCT250 during the afternoon. Winds of
7-11 knots will persist through the morning, increasing to 13-18
knots with gusts to 23-28 knots during the afternoon out of the SW.
Frontal boundary will move west to east this evening, turning
winds to NW after 03Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 AM MDT Mon May 20 2024

A RED FLAG WARNING is in effect for all SW and south-central NM fire
weather zones today. Min RH values will tank into single digits for
the desert lowlands, 8-15% for the Gila Wilderness and Sacramento
Mtns. Increasing SW flow aloft, along with weak surface troughing
and deep afternoon mixing across NM will promote breezy to windy
conditions on today. Winds will range from 15-25 mph with higher
gusts of 30-40 mph, generally out of the W/SW.

Fire weather conditions will be ELEVATED to near-CRITICAL through
the week. A very dry airmass will continue to settle in place across
the Desert SW with Min RH values below 15% each afternoon with poor
overnight recoveries for almost all locations. Temperatures through
the week will be at or slightly above the seasonal average.

With this extended period of very dry conditions and warming
temperatures, fuels (especially the 10hr and 100hr fuels) will
quickly dry and cure. Corresponding ERC charts will sharply increase
into the 90-97th percentile through next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  98  68  94  65 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            92  65  88  60 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               96  60  91  56 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               93  58  88  55 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               70  45  64  42 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    92  58  88  55 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              82  50  78  48 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   93  55  90  51 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                91  53  87  50 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       95  64  92  61 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                97  63  92  54 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             98  65  96  59 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               88  62  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   97  64  95  61 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             93  59  90  55 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           94  66  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            93  56  88  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    95  56  90  52 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 95  60  91  56 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                92  61  88  56 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  83  53  77  48 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                80  49  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 80  50  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  83  48  79  45 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                89  53  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                92  53  88  49 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             83  46  80  44 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   86  49  83  46 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    89  52  86  48 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               83  50  81  49 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  86  52  82  49 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   92  53  89  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  93  55  89  51 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           93  55  90  52 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               87  54  84  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     NMZ110>113.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...38-Rogers