482
FXUS64 KEPZ 312305
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
505 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 203 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024

Generally dry and hot conditions will continue into next week.
Highs over the weekend will be in the 90s to near 100 for the
lowlands, but come the middle of next week, the hottest days of
the year are likely starting Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024

Models at least through midweek in good agreement with
deterministic and ensemble means. Tonight will see mostly clear
skies with similar low temperatures to last night. Dryline will
push toward the Rio Grande by morning, however. Early impact in
the forecast could be a few storms popping over the Sacs Sat
afternoon as that dryline takes some time to retreat east. Some
good instability in the moist side of the boundary, so a low end
severe storm isn`t out of the question in eastern Otero county.
High temperatures tomorrow will approach 100 around ELP and the
Lower Rio Grande Valley, with mid to upper 90s for the remainder
of the lowlands.

A stronger westerly flow sets up for Sun/Mon which will keep
moisture east of the area and surface winds increase to 15-20 mph.
The weak wave that brings this increased winds will drop highs a
degree or two for Sunday compared to Saturday. Little change for
Monday, but highs will warm back toward the highs of Saturday
which means a few triple figures return for the lowest elevations.

Starting Tuesday, an upper low sets up over Northern Baja which
then helps a fairly amplified ridge to setup over the Borderland.
Hottest days of the year expected come Wednesday and Thursday. H85
temps on both the EC/GFS are around 34C-36C with the ensemble
means not much different. This would translate to highs 100-108
for the lowlands. NBM temps only 102/104 Wed/Thu for KELP and
these look low, so raised up a degree or two which may still not
be enough. One thing that may help keep highs from getting to 108
would be overnight lows will still be falling into the lower to
mid 70s and light winds under ridge may prevent full mixing.
There is also agreement that there will be some moisture pushing
back to the west. Moisture still looks fairly shallow with
trajectories not coming off the Gulf of Mexico, but right out of
central Mexico. With the extreme heat, could still see some
isolated thunderstorms forming over the mountains and pushing onto
the lowlands.

By Friday, GFS is lifting low into the Four Corners region while
the EC lifts it north, but keeps it out in the CA area. EC seems
more reasonable given the strength of the ridge. The main impact
from these differences will be how hot Friday will be. Still looks
like most lowland areas will reach at least 100-105. Again, went
above NBM guidance, but may still be not hot enough if that ridge
remains in place.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024

VMC through forecast period. Shallow moisture intrusion from the
east reaching the Rio Grande Valley overnight and shifting surface
winds to the SE 130-160 AOB 6 knots. TS activity tomorrow
afternoon once again limited to the east of KELP, so no direct
terminal impacts expected. Surface winds shifting back to 220-250
at 10-15 knots tomorrow afternoon as dry air returns.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 203 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024

Hot and generally dry conditions through the next 5 days. A couple
of storms are possible over the Sacramento Mts Sat afternoon as
some moisture briefly pushes in overnight and lingers until mid
afternoon before pushing east. Winds will be on the increase for
Sunday and Monday with speeds of 15-20 mph expected along with
high temperatures over the lowlands around 100 and RH`s of 3-8%.
RFTI`s will generally be 4 with some 5`s thrown in around the
windiest areas. The hottest days of the year will arrive Wed as a
strong upper ridge builds in and highs will reach around 105 for
the lowest elevations, but most lowland areas will be right around
100 degrees. These temperatures are expected to continue into the
end of the week with some isolated storms possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  68 100  69  99 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            62  94  61  94 /   0  30  10   0
Las Cruces               61  99  61  97 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               60  96  60  94 /   0  10   0   0
Cloudcroft               48  73  48  72 /   0  20   0   0
Truth or Consequences    62  95  62  95 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              57  88  55  85 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   56  97  56  96 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                57  94  55  92 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       66  97  66  96 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                61  97  58  97 /   0  30  10  10
Fort Hancock             60 101  60  99 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               61  91  61  89 /   0  10   0   0
Fabens                   62 100  62  98 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             58  96  61  94 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           67  96  64  95 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            57  96  51  94 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    57  98  56  96 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 62  96  62  94 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                62  95  61  93 /   0  10   0   0
Mayhill                  51  85  52  85 /   0  30  10  10
Mescalero                51  84  48  83 /   0  20   0   0
Timberon                 50  82  48  81 /   0  20  10   0
Winston                  54  87  51  86 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                60  93  58  91 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                55  95  51  93 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             52  89  37  86 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   54  91  53  89 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    55  95  49  91 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               57  90  45  86 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  58  91  56  88 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   57  95  56  92 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  59  95  58  93 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           58  94  58  91 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               58  89  57  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt