Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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801 FXUS64 KEPZ 230750 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 150 AM MDT Thu May 23 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 146 AM MDT Thu May 23 2024 Warm, dry, and breezy weather through next weekend. Slight uptick in winds Saturday afternoon. Dry weather will continue through the rest of the month with warmer temperatures next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 146 AM MDT Thu May 23 2024 Prevailing southwest flow the next several days, keeping the region dry and temperatures steady right near normal for late May. Lowland highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s through next weekend, with afternoon winds 10 to 20 mph out of the southwest. We`ll see a slight uptick in winds today as the subtropical jet induces a 991mb lee surface low over SE Colorado and subsequent trough through New Mexico. Even stronger jet streak forming over our area on Saturday, with the GFS showing a 988mb low. Breezy afternoon winds can be expected both today and Saturday, with gusts in the 30-40 mph range. Main weather concern will be fire danger given the extremely dry air, lack of precipitation, and breezy southwest winds. A Red Flag Warning is in effect today and will likely be needed Saturday as well. Broad ridge developing over the US Southwest within the flow aloft early next week, timed well with a surface high across the Southern Plains and westward push of the dryline boundary into eastern NM and far west TX (as far west as the Rio Grande valley). The main impact this would have is warmer temperatures, with lowland highs returning to the mid-to-upper 90s. Storm chances will be closer to our eastern CWA boundary, but the shallowness of atmospheric moisture and quick diurnal mixing will greatly limit rain chances locally and likely keep any storms to our east with more favorable instability resides. For now, very low-end PoPs in Otero/Hudspeth Counties next Tuesday/Wednesday. Most areas will remain dry through the end of the month. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1129 PM MDT Wed May 22 2024 VFR conditions through the period at all terminals. Continued very dry conditions. That means skies generally SKC. Wind slackening overnight to AOB 7-11 knots. Tomorrow aft 18Z expect winds to be from 240-260 and increasing to 14-19 knots with gusts 22-30 knots. Some minor BLDU with hazy skies, but no significant vsby reductions. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 146 AM MDT Thu May 23 2024 Critical fire danger today as afternoon winds exceed critical thresholds. Extremely dry conditions with single-digit humidity area wide (3-9%). Southwest flow increasing during the early afternoon hours to 15 to 25 mph. Red Flags issued for all zones locally. Smoke ventilation becoming Excellent by the noon time hour with transport to the east. Very similar weather conditions day-to-day as stagnant dry, southwest flow remains in place through the weekend. Additional Red Flags will likely be needed again Saturday afternoon as winds increase. Rapid drying of fuels will continue this weekend due to the low humidity, poor overnight recoveries, and breezy afternoon winds. ERCs are near normal over Gila NF (60-75th percentile), but well above normal across the southwest lowlands and Lincoln NF (75-98th percentile). These numbers are forecast to increase quickly the next few weeks as continued dry weather and favorable fire conditions continue. Slight rain chances exist early next week due to an intrusion of moisture from the east, but no beneficial wetting rains are expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 93 64 93 66 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 88 58 88 58 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 91 56 91 58 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 88 52 89 57 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 64 43 67 45 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 88 55 89 56 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 78 49 80 50 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 89 51 90 53 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 87 52 88 54 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 90 60 90 62 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 91 55 92 54 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 94 57 94 56 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 84 57 84 58 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 93 59 93 60 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 88 55 89 57 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 89 63 90 64 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 87 51 88 54 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 89 51 91 55 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 89 57 90 59 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 86 54 88 57 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 77 49 80 52 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 76 46 77 49 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 74 45 75 47 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 79 46 82 48 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 84 51 87 54 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 87 49 88 52 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 79 45 81 46 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 82 46 84 48 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 86 50 87 50 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 81 51 82 51 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 82 49 83 52 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 88 50 88 52 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 87 52 89 54 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 86 51 89 53 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 81 51 82 52 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for TXZ055-056. NM...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ110>113. && $$ FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt