473
FXUS64 KEPZ 211042
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
442 AM MDT Tue May 21 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 237 AM MDT Tue May 21 2024

Our high temperatures today will be a few degrees cooler than we
saw on Monday, which should put us just a little above average for
this time of year. Those slightly above average high temperatures
will continue all the way through the coming weekend. We will be
dry through Sunday with no chances for rain and very low relative
humidity readings each afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 AM MDT Tue May 21 2024

Our weather pattern will be slow to change through at least the
weekend, so we will see similar weather each day for the next
several days. Aloft a southwest flow will keep the dry air flowing
into the region. We will see very low RH`s each afternoon, with
readings near 5% in the lowlands and near 10% in area mountains.
It might be a good idea to keep some hand lotion close by since we
will be so dry. The southwest flow aloft will allow a weak lee
side surface trough to develop. This surface trough will give us
breezy to occasionally gusty afternoon winds for the next several
days. We will likely see a little stronger winds on Saturday when
a weak short wave will dash across the New Mexico. Our high
temperatures today through Sunday will run near or just a few
degrees above average. The first of next week may see an upper
level ridge build across the region which will send our high
temperatures a little higher. Will we see a triple digit reading
in El Paso before the month of May is over? It looks like we will
be close, but time will tell.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1139 PM MDT Mon May 20 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period at all terminals.
Passing high and mid clouds will shift east and out of the region
with skies bcmg SKC by 12Z. A Pacific front has pushed across all
terminals with winds shifting to WNW. Winds will drop to 8-10
knots for KDMN, KLRU, and KTCS, but stay breezy and gusty at KELP
well into the night at 20G30 knots through 9-10Z..then diminish to
10-10 knots overnight. Tomorrow aft 18Z expect winds to shift
back to WSW 240-260 and increasing to 15-20 knots with gusts 25-35
knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 237 AM MDT Tue May 21 2024

We will see an extended period of at least elevated fire weather
concerns through the coming weekend. Each day will feature min
RH`s well below 10% in the lowlands and between 10 and 15% in area
mountains. For Wednesday through Friday, we will see lowland min
RH`s at or below 5%, while in area mountains the min RH`s will be
near 10%. Our winds look to stay just below critical levels each
day, with the one exception being next Saturday, when we could see
critical fire weather conditions in the afternoon. Vent rates for
the next several days will be excellent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  94  66  93  64 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            87  60  89  58 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               92  58  91  56 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               87  56  90  54 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               64  44  66  43 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    88  56  88  54 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              79  49  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   90  51  90  50 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                87  52  87  51 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       90  62  90  60 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                91  56  94  54 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             94  59  96  57 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               83  58  85  56 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   93  61  94  59 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             89  56  88  54 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           89  65  90  61 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            87  53  89  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    89  53  90  51 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 91  58  90  56 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                87  57  88  55 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  76  49  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                74  47  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 74  46  76  45 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  79  46  80  45 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                84  52  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                87  51  88  49 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             79  45  81  44 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   83  47  83  46 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    85  50  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               80  51  81  49 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  82  50  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   89  51  89  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  89  53  88  51 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           89  52  89  50 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               84  52  83  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...15-Brice