470
FNUS74 KEPZ 242143
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Blue 2...USFS
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
343 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1200 MDT on May 25.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM MDT SATURDAY...

.DISCUSSION...

Dry conditions will persist on Saturday with min RH around 11%.
The 20ft winds will start off breezy, but will become windy in
the afternoon while out from the west southwest. The temperatures
will be near the normal. The ventilation rate will be excellent.
Saturday overnight recovery will be fair while the winds subside
to light to low end breezy. For Sunday, dry conditions will
continue with no precipitation in sight. Despite this, there will
be a slight increase in the moisture with the min RH around 15%.
The 20ft winds will be light to low end breezy and from the
west southwest. Due to this, fire weather conditions on Saturday
at this site will be extreme then elevated on Sunday.


.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 62.
Min humidity........11 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Windy. Southwest winds 26 to 30 mph with gusts
                    to around 61 mph.
Mixing height.......6800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 36 to 42 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (118400 knot-ft) increasing to
                    excellent (271300 knot-ft) late in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........20     20     21
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1
Temp............58     61     62
RH..............14     12     11
20 ft wind......SW 26  SW 26  SW 30
20 ft wind gust.53     53     61
Mix hgt (ft)....3200   6800   6800
Transport wind..SW 36  SW 42  SW 42
Haines index....3      4      5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..118    271    271
Ventrate Cat....VYGD   EXNT   EXNT

.SATURDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 41.
Max humidity........34 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Breezy. West winds 22 to 28 mph with gusts to
                    around 61 mph decreasing to 15 to 18 mph with
                    gusts to around 35 mph overnight.
Mixing height.......0 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 37 mph decreasing to 17 to 22 mph
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (258900 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (0 knot-ft) in the late evening and overnight.
Haines Index........2 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........12     12     6      7      7      8
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............59     52     48     45     44     42
RH..............11     15     19     24     27     32
20 ft wind......W 28   W 28   W 22   W 18   W 18   W 15
20 ft wind gust.61     61     45     35     35     26
Mix hgt (ft)....6800   6800   BLW100 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100
Transport wind..W 37   W 37   W 22   W 22   W 17   W 17
Haines index....5      4      4      3      3      3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..259    259    0      0      0      0
Ventrate Cat....EXNT   EXNT   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 61.
Min humidity........15 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 12 to 13 mph.
Mixing height.......6600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 15 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (17100 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (110400 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........4         3         3         4
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............41        50        57        61
RH..............34        24        19        16
20 FT wind......W 12G18   W 12G22   W 12G24   W 13G25
Mix hgt (ft)....1200      1200      4300      6600
Transport wind..NW 15     NW 15     W 16      W 20
Haines index....2         2         2         4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..17        17        67        110
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      GOOD      VYGD

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.MEMORIAL DAY...
Clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the mid 60s. West winds
around 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the upper 60s. South
winds around 12 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...
Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in
the mid 40s. Highs in the mid 60s. South winds around 12 mph.

$$
Forecaster...TEXEIRA
Requested by...Ryan Whiteaker
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2415063.0/EPZ
.DELDT 05/24/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL ryan.whiteaker@usda.gov