Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
690 FNUS74 KEPZ 230144 FWSEPZ Spot Forecast for BOTELLA...BIA-MESCALERO National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 744 PM MDT Wed May 22 2024 Forecast is based on forecast start time of 2000 MDT on May 22. If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service. ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY... .DISCUSSION... A persistent dry southwest flow pattern will continue elevated fire conditions through this forecast period. The dry air will keep the skies clear. Nights will be cool but days will be slightly warmer than normal. Relative humidity recovery will remain poor with very low minimum daytime RH, dropping to around 10 percent. Winds will be mostly light in the overnights, but become breezy to windy in the afternoons. Critical (Red Flag) conditions are expected tomorrow and likely again on Saturday, and then elevated going forward. .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Clear (0 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. LAL.................1. Min temperature.....40-44. Max humidity........22-25 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 9 to 13 mph. Mixing height.......700 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southwest 14 to 16 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Good (74300 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing to poor (9600 knot-ft) late in the night. Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM Sky (%).........0 0 0 0 0 Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 Temp............59 52 48 44 41 RH..............12 16 18 20 23 20 ft wind......SW 13 SW 10 SW 9 SW 9 SW 10 20 ft wind gust.20 16 14 14 14 Mix hgt (ft)....800 700 700 700 700 Transport wind..SW 16 W 15 W 15 W 14 W 14 Haines index....6 6 5 5 5 Vrate kt-ft/1K..74 10 10 10 10 Ventrate Cat....GOOD POOR POOR POOR POOR .THURSDAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. LAL.................1. Max temperature.....73-76. Min humidity........6-9 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 12 to 19 mph with gusts 30 to 35 mph Mixing height.......7200 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West around 16 mph increasing to 27 to 34 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Good (88700 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to excellent (184600 knot-ft) in the afternoon increasing to excellent (232400 knot-ft) late in the afternoon. Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky (%).........4 4 3 2 2 3 Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............40 50 61 68 72 76 RH..............25 20 14 10 8 7 20 ft wind......SW 12 SW 12 SW 15 SW 19 SW 19 SW 19 20 ft wind gust.18 18 28 33 33 33 Mix hgt (ft)....4400 4400 6800 6800 7200 7200 Transport wind..W 16 W 16 W 27 W 27 W 34 W 34 Haines index....5 5 5 4 5 5 Vrate kt-ft/1K..89 89 185 185 232 232 Ventrate Cat....GOOD GOOD EXNT EXNT EXNT EXNT .THURSDAY NIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. LAL.................1. Min temperature.....Around 42. Max humidity........24 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 12 to 18 mph with gusts to around 32 mph shifting to the west around 8 mph after 3 am. Mixing height.......800 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West around 33 mph decreasing to 15 to 22 mph in the late evening and overnight. Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (216800 knot-ft) decreasing to poor (11700 knot-ft) in the late evening and overnight. Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM Sky (%).........4 6 9 10 Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 Temp............71 56 49 44 RH..............7 11 15 21 20 FT wind......SW 18G32 SW 16G26 W 12G20 W 8G15 Mix hgt (ft)....6800 6800 800 800 Transport wind..W 33 W 33 W 22 W 15 Haines index....5 5 5 4 Vrate kt-ft/1K..217 217 14 12 Ventrate Cat....EXNT EXNT POOR POOR .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .SATURDAY... Clear and dry. Critical fire weather conditions. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the mid 70s. Min RH near 8 percent. Southwest winds around 13 mph, becoming windy 20 to 25 mph with gusts 30 to 35 mph. .SUNDAY... Clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the mid 70s. West winds around 14 mph. .MEMORIAL DAY... Clear. Lows around 40. Highs in the upper 70s. Southwest winds around 8 mph. $$ Forecaster...BIRD Requested by...NICHOLAS GARCIA Type of request...WILDFIRE .TAG 2414963.0/EPZ .DELDT 05/22/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL NMADC@FIRENET.GOV