Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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014 FXUS64 KEWX 201826 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 126 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 125 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 The latest GOES 16 water vapor imagery shows at 594dm ridge over northern Mexico, resulting in our rather hot and humid conditions early this afternoon. Clouds have been slow to break over the Edwards Plateau, so opted to lower Max T`s by a degree or two this afternoon, but it won`t make much difference, as it`ll still be hot. Southwest flow aloft remains west of us over west Texas and New Mexico and will remain that way through most of Tuesday until we start to see the ridge slide more eastward tomorrow evening. A cold front will enter the Texas Panhandle late Tuesday and start working southward, but don`t get your hopes up, as it`s unlikely to have much of any impact on our sensible weather in the short term. Hot again on Tuesday with highs in the 100-105 range along the Rio Grande and in the 90s elsewhere. As far as storm chances go, we may see a stray shower or storm develop Tuesday afternoon/evening over the Edwards Plateau or Rio Grande Plains, but 700mb temperatures will remain quite warm, resulting in strong capping. Anything that can break through the cap would be strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds, but the odds are less than 10% at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 125 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 Upper level ridging will continue to dominate our weather through the long term period, resulting in an early season heat wave. A few weaknesses in the northern periphery of this ridge will help stall our warming trend a bit Wednesday and Thursday, as well as bring a low chance for isolated showers and storms to far northern portions of our CWA (southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country). While there will be sufficient instability and shear in place to support severe storms both days, a capping inversion will be working to inhibit convective development (especially on Wednesday), which is part of the reason for the low PoPs aside from the subtle forcing. Another chance for isolated storms seems possible Friday afternoon/evening across northern portions of the Hill Country before the ridge expands slightly northward over the weekend and into the beginning of next week. This will lead to the warmest temperatures of the year so far with widespread upper 90s to upper 100s expected for high temperatures and even warmer heat indices. Heat advisories and/or warnings will be likely. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1252 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024 MVFR ceilings should break at SAT by 1830Z with VFR ceilings expected through 05-06Z tonight before low clouds result in MVFR cigs once again overnight into mid to late morning Tuesday. DRT will see MVFR cigs a bit later, towards 09Z. ESE winds will keep moisture in place over the region, resulting in MVFR ceiling development mentioned above. VFR ceilings should return by midday Tuesday at all sites. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 93 75 94 76 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 92 75 93 76 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 95 75 95 75 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 91 73 91 75 / 0 0 0 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 103 79 104 79 / 0 0 10 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 91 74 91 75 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 97 75 98 75 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 93 74 94 76 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 91 76 91 77 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 95 76 95 76 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 96 77 97 77 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...MMM Long-Term...Gale Aviation...MMM