583
FXUS64 KEWX 231928
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
228 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

This morning, a few thunderstorms passed over Llano, Burnet, and
Williamson Counties before moving east to northeast out of the area.
Storms continue early this afternoon to the north in the FWD CWA,
although some backbuilding and outflow boundaries could provide more
chances for a storm ot two in similar areas to those of this
morning. There is a small chance a storm could become severe due to
large CAPE values and vertical shear, with large hail, damaging
winds, and a tornado all possible. Any convection should be north or
east of South Central Texas by this evening. More chances for
thunderstorms are seen in a similar area tomorrow afternoon over the
Hill Country and northern I-35 corridor ahead of the dryline and
front to the north. These will also have the potential to be severe
with mainly a large hail and damaging wind threat. Both today and
tomorrow, any strong storms could also bring heavy rain leading to
isolated flooding.

Clouds continue to break up this afternoon with highs varied based
on where clouds linger longest. Over the coastal plains I-35
corridor, Hill Country and portions of the southern Edwards Plateau,
highs will be mainly in the low to mid 90s by late afternoon.
Further west along the Rio Grande closer to the dryline, highs will
top out in the upper 90s to around 105 degrees. Heat index values up
to 108-111 degrees continue to warrant the Heat Advisory in place
generally along and south of US 57 and west of I-37 through 7 PM.

Low clouds redevelop overnight mainly over the eastern two thirds of
the area. Warm overnight lows are expected again from the low 70s to
around 80 degrees. Clouds look to mix out quicker tomorrow than
today, aiding in a bump in high temperatures for Friday. The dryline
will advance over counties along the Rio Grande during the afternoon
with clear skies expected in these areas. Highs will be hot behind
this feature, possibly reaching up to 106-108 degrees in a few
locations, with heat index values lower due to the drier dewpoints.
Ahead of this feature, hot temperatures and moderate humidity will
lead to high heat index values ranging from around 100 to 112
degrees. The axis of highest heat indices will be over portions of
the Rio Grande Plains, I-35 corridor, and coastal plains. Some of
these locations will warrant a Heat Advisory. With the current
advisory in place through this afternoon, will hold off on issuance
for now. Dangerous early season heat continues through this holiday
weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Upper level ridging will remain in place over Mexico through the
long term period, which will generally lead to a warming trend
through the Memorial Day Weekend with Heat Advisories and/or
Warnings likely. Dry conditions will also likely to prevail over the
weekend, though an isolated storm cannot be ruled out across
northern portions of the Hill Country Saturday afternoon/evening. At
this time, Sunday appears to be the warmest day for south-central
Texas, though each day through the weekend will have dangerous heat
for those spending prolonged periods outdoors and not taking the
proper precautions. Daily record MaxT`s and record warm MinT`s will
also likely be challenged or set each day across the area. Del Rio
specifically will likely have a couple of opportunities to set a new
all time MaxT record for the month of May as well, which currently
stands at 109F from earlier this month.

A welcomed drop in temperatures is expected Tuesday into Wednesday
of next week as a cold front works into the area. Temperatures will
still likely be above average, yet noticeably different from the
previous days. This front may also bring some isolated storm
potential as well late Monday through Wednesday as the boundary
lingers near the area. Temperatures may try to warm slightly through
the second half of next week, though a few disturbances riding over
the top of the upper ridge could bring some cloud cover and
continued isolated storm chances to help keep temperatures somewhat
at bay.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Besides some locations over the Hill County and southern Edwards
Plateau, most locations should begin the period with VFR conditions.
Any lingering MVFR ceilings should lift in the next hour or two with
VFR conditions through the evening. Low ceilings will redevelop
tonight across the eastern two thirds of the area, mainly staying
MVFR. Some IFR ceilings will be possible over the Hill Country by
sunrise, and will need to watch SAT for this potential. HZ continues
with occasional reductions to VSBY, however 6SM or higher will
generally be seen. Breezy southeasterly wind will be seen in the
eastern half of the area through this evening, with lighter wind at
DRT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
(RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

         THU        FRI        SAT        SUN       MON
        05/23      05/24      05/25      05/26     05/27
------------------------------------------------------------
AUS    99/2008    99/1955   100/2011    97/2018  100/2011
ATT   100/2008   104/1925   100/2011    99/2018  100/2011
SAT    99/2008*  101/1989*  103/1989   100/1989  100/2011
DRT   105/2000   109/2000   104/2011   106/2018  106/2018

* TIED RECORD WITH MOST RECENT OCCURRENCE SHOWN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              93  76  97  75 /  20  10  10  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  93  76  97  74 /  10  10  10  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     96  76  99  75 /  10  10  10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            90  74  93  73 /  30  10  20  10
Del Rio Intl Airport          103  79 107  76 /  10   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        90  75  94  73 /  30  10  20  10
Hondo Muni Airport             99  75 102  74 /  10   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        94  75  98  74 /  10  10  10  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   92  77  95  77 /  10   0   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       96  77  99  76 /  10  10  10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           98  77 102  77 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Atascosa-Dimmit-Frio-
Maverick-Zavala.

&&

$$

Short-Term...27
Long-Term...Gale
Aviation...27