047
FXUS64 KEWX 040526
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1226 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 855 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Some isolated convection did manage to develop over portions of the
Rio Grande plains and the current forecast has this covered well. We
did opt to remove the precipitation chances for portions of the Hill
Country and I-35 corridor based on radar trends and recent runs of
the HRRR model. Otherwise, only minor changes were made to the hourly
temperature and dew points to account for observational trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Scattered to broken cloud cover continues to hold on for most places
and has kept temperatures a bit lower, but with some breaks, we
should see highs warming later this afternoon. Will continue the
Heat Advisory out west for this afternoon. Most of the area should
remain dry today and tonight but there are two possible areas to
watch for possible activity in our CWA. The first is in the
southwestern CWA late this afternoon or evening. Already seeing one
storm well west of the Rio Grande and some of this activity could
push east of the Rio Grande later today. In addition, latest runs of
the HRRR had shown some lower chances of some possible activity in
the Fort Worth CWA clipping out northeastern counties this evening.
Will include a 20 PoP for both of these regions for now for the
overall low chance of rain with the higher probabilities of no rain.
Instability is high and therefore, can`t rule out a strong storm
with anything that does affect the CWA late this afternoon and
evening. Large hail and perhaps damaging winds would be the main
risk associated with any stronger storm.

The remainder of the area overnight will be rain free with warm
temperatures continuing. Should see another round of low clouds for
most of the area with lows in the middle 70s to near 80 degrees.
Mostly dry weather is expected tomorrow with temperatures on the
increase. The low-level thermal profile warms by 2-3C tomorrow which
should lead to a 3-4 degree increase in highs tomorrow compared to
today. Will likely need a Heat Advisory for most of the CWA tomorrow
outside of the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau for the expected
elevated heat index values. Another round of nocturnal stratus and
lows in the middle 70s to near 80 degrees can be expected tomorrow
night into early Wednesday morning.

Heat Precautions: Never leave people and/or pets alone within a
closed car, stay hydrated with plenty of water, wear loose-fitting
and light colored clothing, and take frequent breaks within the
shade and air conditioning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

The hot weather conditions continue on Wednesday through the
extended forecast period. Another Heat Advisory is likely for most
of South-Central Texas on Wednesday as heat index values are
forecast to range from 108 to 112 over parts of the Hill Country,
I-35 corridor and coastal Plains and up to 117 along the Rio Grande.

By Thursday, the subtropical high builds across the desert southwest
and continues through the latter part of the work week into the
weekend. The subtropical ridge is forecast to slowly moves to the
east through next week. In the mean time, several upper short waves
are forecast to move across the southern plains through the period,
and provide enough lift and instability for storms to develop to the
north and east of the local area while we remain dry.

As far as temperatures go, they are going to be slightly above the
normal climate values (95-100) across the Hill Country, I-35 and
coastal plains and well-above climate normals for areas along the
Rio Grande where afternoon highs could range from the 100 to 106
degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

MVFR ceilings prevail prevail overnight through this morning across
the I-35 terminals (KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF). KDRT remains VFR but some
scattered low clouds could arrive around or just after sunrise but
should quickly clear out by the afternoon. VFR conditions return to
all terminals by 16 UTC. Low clouds return and ceilings lower to
MVFR levels again late tonight into Wednesday for the 30 hr TAF
sites (KAUS and KSAT). Light to moderate east-southeast to south-
southeasterly breezes continue. Gusts occasionally trend around or
above 20 knots at the I-35 terminals from late this afternoon
through this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              97  78  95  76 /  10  10  10  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  97  77  94  76 /  10  10  10  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     99  77  97  76 /  10  10  10  20
Burnet Muni Airport            95  75  93  74 /  10  10  10  20
Del Rio Intl Airport          106  81 108  81 /   0   0  10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        95  76  93  75 /  10  10  10  20
Hondo Muni Airport            101  77  99  75 /  10  10  10  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        98  76  95  75 /  10  10  10  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   95  78  94  76 /   0  10  10  10
San Antonio Intl Airport      100  78  97  76 /  10  10  10  20
Stinson Muni Airport          101  79  99  77 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...29
Long-Term...17
Aviation...Brady