Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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487 FXUS64 KEWX 280541 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1241 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1012 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 The showers and thunderstorms noted earlier well south of Eagle Pass continue to move to the southeast away from our area. We have let Severe Thunderstorm Watch 336 for the remaining counties expire. Expect no convective development overnight due to lack of forcing. CAMS continue to show showers and thunderstorms developing Tuesday afternoon, then likely forming into one or more clusters and moving across our area Tuesday evening into night. Forecast soundings show enhanced potential for strong to severe storms and locally heavy rains. Large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and minor flooding are the main threats. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 209 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Latest visible satellite images are showing a scattered to broken low level cloud deck across the coastal plains while the rest of South Central Texas enjoys mostly sunny skies. There are a few high clouds arriving from the west associated with elevated moisture and from the top of the storms that are already ongoing across the Serranias del Burro Mountains. This activity out west may take several hours to make it into parts of the Rio Grande later this afternoon and early evening. In the meantime, temperatures continue to climb into the 90s and ranging from 100 to 101 degrees along the Rio Grande as of 130 PM. A Heat Advisory and Excessive Heat Warning continues in effect for most of South Central Texas through 8 PM this evening. Dangerously hot conditions with heat index values of 110 to 114 are forecast for the I-35 corridor and from 114 to 117 across the coastal plains through early this evening. Circling back to the storms mentioned above, some of them could make into the Rio Grande later this afternoon and early evening as they develop ahead of the dry-line. Another area of convective initiation is expected ahead of a cold front over central Texas. Some of these storms could be developing over parts of the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country late this afternoon through this evening. If they do manage to develop, the main threats will be large hail and damaging wind gusts. Storm activity should be over by midnight tonight. Much cooler temperatures are forecast for Tuesday as clouds linger around for most of the day and there are better chances for showers and storms. Tuesday`s highs are forecast to range from the low to mid 90s across the Hill Country and I-35 corridor to upper 90s and up to 101 for the coastal plains and along the Rio Grande. Tuesday`s weather setup brings the potential for strong to severe storms across most areas of South Central Texas as storms develop ahead of the dry-line and a quasi-stationary frontal boundary over central Texas. It is possible that a linear MCS develops over the San Angelo CWA and then pushes into the Rio Grande/southern Edwards Plateau/Hill Country and parts of the I-35 corridor late afternoon continuing into the evening. The main threats are likely to be damaging wind gusts of 60 mph and greater and large to very hail. The storm system weakens as it moves into the coastal plains and then over the middle Texas coast. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 209 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 The beginning of the long term period will see temperatures closer to normal values along with daily low to medium chances for thunderstorms. The thunderstorm chances can be largely attributed to a stationary front across the northern portion of the state through the remainder of the work week and occasional upper level disturbances riding over the ridge which will remain centered over Mexico. While this particular pattern results in daily chances for rain, the exact locations where the rain will fall remain uncertain due to the subtle and fairly broad forcing. Regardless, daily isolated to scattered convection will help keep temperatures at bay through the week due to increased cloud cover and rain cooled air. Guidance shows a slight northward shift of the higher upper level heights over the coming weekend, which will likely bring a slight warming trend and drier conditions heading into the beginning of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 MVFR flight conditions generally prevails overnight through Tuesday morning at the I-35 TAF sites (KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF). This continues to include some reduced visibility from haze or some combination of haze and patchy fog. KDRT likely remains VFR into and through much of Tuesday. Convective potential returns and increases from late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night as convection likely arrives in the form of a large complex or individual clusters out of north and west Texas. The confidence remains low regarding the exact timing, placement, and intensity of activity as it advances through the area. However, there is potential for storms to become severe with large hail, and strong damaging winds. The southeasterly winds that occur outside of any convective influences are to diminish overnight before becoming breezy again through Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 95 72 88 73 / 20 60 40 30 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 95 72 88 72 / 20 50 40 30 New Braunfels Muni Airport 97 74 91 73 / 20 50 30 20 Burnet Muni Airport 92 69 85 71 / 30 60 40 30 Del Rio Intl Airport 101 76 98 78 / 30 30 20 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 93 69 86 71 / 20 60 40 30 Hondo Muni Airport 97 72 93 73 / 20 50 20 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 96 72 90 72 / 20 50 30 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 95 74 88 73 / 20 50 40 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 97 74 91 75 / 20 60 30 20 Stinson Muni Airport 98 75 93 76 / 20 50 20 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...04 Long-Term...05 Aviation...Brady