104
FXUS62 KFFC 031052
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
652 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 430 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Showers and isolated thunderstorms lingered longer than
anticipated around the Atlanta metro area tonight. As of this
writing, showers have become much more isolated. Due to the slow
movement of the convection and the persistent redevelopment
(mostly spurred by CAPE values in excess of 1000 J/kg and
interactions of storm outflows), some locations between the E side
of Atlanta and Loganville received between 1 and 3 inches with
isolated spots receiving over 4 inches.

An upper trough extending from the mid-Atlantic states to the SE
coast of FL will shift farther E today as a narrow ridge builds
from the SE GA coast to the E Great Lakes. Showers and
thunderstorms will become more diurnally driven today, with the
best chances along and S of the I-20 corridor. MUCAPE values of
around 1000 J/kg will continue, but shear will be minimal. As a
result, severe storms are not anticipated. However, slow storm
motion may lead to localized higher rainfall totals. High
temperatures will range from the mid 70s in the NE to near 90 SE
of Macon.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will gradually wind
down Monday night with low temperatures ranging from near 60 in
the NE to the upper 60s across the S.

A weak shortwave approaching from the NW will bring an increase
in shower and thunderstorm chances on Tuesday, with likely PoPs
from the Atlanta metro area N. A few strong storms will be
possible in the NW portion of the state, but severe wx is not
anticipated. High temperatures will be similar to today`s highs.
/SEC

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 430 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

- Tuesday night through Thursday:

Relatively weak, quasi-zonal flow aloft will start off the long-
term period. Perturbations in the flow, diurnal heating/ample
instability, and PWAT of ~1.5" or greater will generate scattered
showers and thunderstorms each day. As is typical during the warm
months, colliding outflow boundaries (and any upscale
growth/organization due to perturbations aloft) could encourage
showers and storms to persist well after sunset. Pinning down the
timing/influence of any perturbations will be more of a short-term
period challenge as they are tricky to forecast more than a
couple days out. The potential for organized/widespread severe
weather is quite low given a lack of well-defined forcing and
little to no deep-layer shear. That said, as is the case most days
with convection during the warm months, strong storms will be
possible with localized damaging wind gusts, small hail,
torrential downpours, and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning. The
QPF ranges from 0.10" to 0.20" across central Georgia and 0.25" to
0.75" across north Georgia. Localized rainfall totals of 1.0" or
greater will be possible in the mountains, where orographic uplift
could aid in precip efficiency. High temps will be in the upper
80s to lower 90s outside of the mountains. Low temps will be in
the mid-60s to lower 70s.

- Friday through the weekend:

An upper-level ridge building in across the western two-thirds of
the CONUS on Friday and associated high pressure will drive a
cold front (said otherwise, the leading edge of a drier air mass)
across the forecast area. After previous days of dew points in the
60s to lower 70s, dew points will fall into the 50s to lower 60s.
Will need to keep an eye on both Saturday and Sunday given the
northwest flow regime and the possibility of "ridge-rider" MCSs
diving southward. Cooler overnight temps are expected this
weekend, with Saturday morning low temps in the 50s across
portions of north Georgia. Ample sunshine will keep high temps
near climatology this weekend -- in the mid-80s to lower 90s.

Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

In the wake of the recent rainfall, low cigs and some patchy,
mostly light fog are anticipated early this morning. Isolated to
scattered showers and storms are expected once again later this
afternoon and evening in similar locations. Winds will be very
light and generally out of the SW outside of convective activity.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium on all elements.

SEC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          66  86  66  88 /  20  50  50  60
Atlanta         69  86  69  89 /  20  60  40  50
Blairsville     61  80  63  81 /  10  70  50  70
Cartersville    66  86  66  88 /  20  60  40  60
Columbus        69  90  70  92 /  20  50  20  40
Gainesville     66  84  67  87 /  20  60  50  70
Macon           68  89  69  92 /  20  50  30  40
Rome            67  86  67  89 /  20  60  40  70
Peachtree City  67  87  68  90 /  20  50  30  50
Vidalia         69  91  70  93 /  20  50  30  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

$$

SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....Martin
AVIATION...SEC