034
FXUS62 KFFC 250238
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1038 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

...Late Evening Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1029 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

All is quiet across North and Central Georgia late this evening
with current temperature readings ranging in the upper 60s across
the North to mid 70s further south. Mid to high level clouds will
persist across North GA tonight with the potential for some
additional scattered low clouds Saturday morning. Some patchy fog
will also be possible in low lying areas in addition to areas that
received rainfall earlier today. Latest hi-res guidance is still
trying to depict an MCS type feature that drifts south into the
CWA as early as 12-14z Saturday. Made a few tweaks to PoPs but
largely maintained slight to low chance PoPs to account for
uncertainties. If this does pan out, the potential for convective
activity during the afternoon may be limited, particularly across
the North


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 242 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed across north
Georgia amid diurnal heating. Additional development is expected
through the afternoon as remnant boundaries as well as an MCV
associated with a decaying convective complex over northern Alabama
push into the area amid SBCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. The strongest
storms could produce damaging wind gusts as well as instances of
hail through this evening. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible
given PWATs over 1.5-1.7", particularly if any localized training of
storms occurs.

While some convection may linger into the evening, a general
decrease in convective coverage is expected during the overnight
hours with loss of heating. However, uncertainty increases by
Saturday morning as some CAMs (notably the HRRR) continue to
indicate the potential for an MCS to approach north Georgia. These
mesoscale features are notoriously difficult to forecast with regard
to timing and placement, so the Saturday forecast will greatly
depend on this potential.

For this forecast, chance PoPs were maintained across north GA
through the morning with a diurnal increase in PoPs into the
afternoon. However, if more widespread convection indeed does affect
the area in the morning, this could serve to lessen afternoon
development, at least across portions of north Georgia. The severe
threat would associated with any morning convective complex would
likely be fairly limited given a less-unstable environment, though a
threat for strong wind gusts can`t be ruled out. Any additional
afternoon convection forming along remnant boundaries could pose a
more sustained severe threat if sufficient instability is realized
(depending on evolution of morning convection).

RW

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 242 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Cold front still on schedule for early next week.

Fast flow will likely remain in place across the CWA through early
next week. The mid level flow remains very conducive to strong
shortwaves/MCV/MCS features to move east within the flow through the
period. There are some slight differences within the 500mb pattern
between the NAM and GFS for Sunday. The GFS has a slightly stronger
shortwave moving across northern GA during the day, while the NAM
has some slight shortwave ridging. Will keep the highest pops along
the GA/TN/NC border and within the lower/mid chance category where
any shortwave ridging would be weakest.

A trough looks to move through the SE states later Monday into
Tuesday. This will be coincident with a frontal passage. There will
be plenty of surface instability and lapse rates will be pretty
steep. Shear looks to be marginal to decent, averaging between 35-
45kt. Do think convection could be a bit more organized as the front
moves through.

High pressure will build in behind the front for the remainder of
the week. Fairly quiet weather is expected.

NListemaa

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 749 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

VFR conditions will largely continue through this TAF package.
Aside from a rogue thunderstorms in the vicinity of ATL all other
convection has dissipated this evening. TSRA should hopefully
diminish after 01z. Light/VRB winds overnight. MVFR vis will be
possible at RYY/AHN between 08-12z. Anticipating another round of
shra/tsra on Saturday with shra as early as 15-16z. Maintained a
PROB30 for the aftn though chances will largely depend on how
things progress during morning hours. Winds remain out of the SW 3
to 8kts.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...

Low to medium confidence on timing of tsra potential on Saturday.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          66  89  67  91 /  20  40  20  30
Atlanta         69  88  69  91 /  20  40  20  20
Blairsville     62  83  62  85 /  30  40  20  40
Cartersville    66  87  67  91 /  30  40  20  20
Columbus        71  89  69  92 /  20  40  20  10
Gainesville     66  87  68  90 /  20  40  20  30
Macon           69  90  69  92 /  10  40  20  10
Rome            67  88  67  91 /  40  40  20  20
Peachtree City  67  88  67  91 /  20  40  20  20
Vidalia         70  91  71  94 /  10  30  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....NListemaa
AVIATION...07