862
FXUS62 KFFC 201850
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
250 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024



...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 227 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

WPC surface analysis reveals a high pressure system centered on
the Appalachians. Day Cloud Phase satellite imagery shows cumulus
development over the mountains of NE and N-central GA, where CAMs
are showing orographically-forced showers and possibly isolated
thunderstorms developing this afternoon. So far, convection has
not quite initiated, but with SBCAPE at 1500 J/kg across the
mountains per SPC mesoanalysis and sufficient low-level and mid-
level lapse rates, expect to see some showers develop in the next
couple hours with further warming/destabilization. SPC has far
north GA outlooked in a General Thunder risk, which makes sense,
as strong convection appears unlikely given high pressure, weak
ridging aloft, and a relatively drier airmass in place. High
temperatures will be in the lower- to mid-80s outside of the
mountains, where high temps will be in the 70s. The overnight
period will be dry besides the possibility of a few lingering
showers across NE and N-central GA. Low temps will be in the 60s.

Weak ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface will persist
tomorrow (Tuesday). Similar to today, CAMs suggest development of
orographically-driven showers and possibly a thunderstorm over the
Appalachians tomorrow. Per the HREF, SBCAPE values look to be
similar to those today, but with the high pressure setup further
establishing itself over the Southeast with continued ridging
aloft, convection may have a more difficult time/take longer in
the afternoon to initiate. High temps will generally be a few
degrees warmer than those today -- in the mid- to upper-80s -- and
in the mountains, highs will be in the 70s again.

Martin


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 227 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Starting off the long term period with Wednesday, the area will
continue to be under the influence of the long wave ridge set up
over almost the entire eastern third of the CONUS. This along with
the lack of moisture over the area will continue the dry and warm
trend over the area. The unfortunate piece to this is that
temperature will quickly rise with many area reaching close to 90
which goes in line with the Climate Prediction Center`s 6-10 day
outlook showing above normal temperatures.

While this ridging is dominating our area, the low pressure
system to the west will track into the Great Lakes region,
dragging a cold front into Tennessee where it is expected to stall
out. While this is happening, the ridging moves off to the east
and the flow becomes more zonal over the area which gives way to
short bursts of vorticity moving through the overall flow. With
the front stalling over Tennessee and the waves sticking to more
of north Georgia, the rain chances beginning on Friday will be
mainly confined to the northern portions of the area although
Saturday showers could reach down into central Georgia. Rain
chances have decreased slightly over the weekend but should the
front sag any further south then those rain chances would sag
south as well. Temps will stay in the upper 80s to low 90s for
much of the area through the period with no real relief in sight
unfortunately.

Hernandez


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period at
all sites. FEW/SCT cumulus at 035 to 055 is expected through early
evening. Isolated, diurnally-driven -SHRA and -TSRA are expected
to remain north of the Atlanta area TAF sites and AHN. FEW/SCT
cloud cover between ~050 and ~100 is forecasted across northeast
GA and southward across the Atlanta metro overnight. Winds will be
E to SE at 3-8 kts today, becoming LGT to calm overnight. Another
Cu field will develop tomorrow (Tuesday) afternoon. Winds will be
E to SE at 3-8 kts again tomorrow.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.

Martin


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          61  86  61  87 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         65  86  65  88 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     61  80  59  83 /  10  10   0   0
Cartersville    63  86  62  88 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        63  86  65  88 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     64  84  63  85 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           61  86  61  88 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            63  87  64  89 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  61  86  62  88 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         63  84  63  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Martin