818
FXUS62 KFFC 190551
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
151 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024



...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 210 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

Water vapor satellite imagery and radar imagery depict the fetch of
moisture and embedded convection that brought moderate to heavy
rainfall across portions of central GA shifting south and east.
Isolated to scattered showers have begun to develop north of this
area that was worked over by earlier rainfall, as cloud cover has
begun to scatter out. SBCAPE has climbed to 1500-2000 J/kg across
much of the CWA, so expect to see increasing coverage of showers as
the afternoon continues. A shortwave/concentrated area of vorticity
currently over TN/AL is tracking eastward, so also expect to see
scattered to widespread thunderstorms develop across north GA over
the next several hours. Some storms over N AL associated with this
feature have been strong to severe, so expect that some storms across
north GA will have similar intensity. The primary threats will be
damaging wind gusts and hail up to 1" in diameter, with cloud-to-
ground lightning and heavy rainfall also concerns. As this feature
aloft draws closer and insolation increases across the rest of the
CWA (at least where cloud cover clears out enough), the potential for
isolated strong to severe storms farther south will increase. SPC
has the entire CWA in a Marginal Risk, which makes sense given the
ample bulk shear from a belt of strong winds aloft plus the
shortwave, as well as increasing diurnally-driven instability.

Some of the CAMs suggest that convection could organize into
lines/clusters late this afternoon into the evening due to the
forcing aloft and convergence of outflow boundaries. As a result,
some showers and storms could persist well after sunset, but in
general, expect to see an overall decrease in coverage of convection
as daytime heating ceases. The aforementioned shortwave axis will
shift east of the CWA tomorrow (Sunday), but progged SBCAPE/MUCAPE of
500-1500 J/kg area-wide will support isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening. A strong storm
or two with gusty winds will be possible, but with little to no bulk
shear and poor mid-level lapse rates expected, severe storms look to
be unlikely. SPC has the entire CWA in General Thunder tomorrow.

Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 210 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

No major weather impacts or forecast concerns expected in the long
term period.

Positively tilted upper trough will continue slide east away from
the east coast and southeast states Monday with dry NW flow over most
of the area except for far NE portions of the state where rare
upslope and isolated convection on the back side of a weak upper low
is expected in the afternoon. Tuesday should be dry as upper ridging
from the SW builds and a weak wave passes well to our north.

By Wednesday, large upper low centered over the northern Plains will
be pushing east into the Great Lakes with a wide swath of Westerlies
around it. The fringe of the Westerlies will move into north GA with
increasing moisture and some life, could see isolated convection
along and ahead of front in TN push south. Front and SWly flow aloft
pushes deeper into the state Thursday at which point spread in model
guidance increases significantly with one or two clusters indicating
a weak wave in the westerlies over the lower MS valley states early
Friday morning which is a very favorable pattern for widespread
showers and storms. Too soon to tell if conditions would be favorable
for severe storms or very heavy rain, but with what we see now, does
not appear to be too significant. This is supported by Day 7 and 8
SPC, WPC and CSU ML severe weather and heavy rainfall guidance.

Atlantic basin still indicates no tropical activity expected the
next 7 days.

SNELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 143 AM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Mixed bag of cigs/vsbys across TAF terminals. Northern TAF sites
will be trending towards IFR/LIFR cigs and vsbys over the course
of the early morning hours. Intermittent periods of VV002/VV001
and 1/2SM will be possibly through sunrise with improvement to
MVFR/VFR by the late morning/early afternoon. -SHRA will also be
possible for the metro locations from roughly 12 to 16Z with -TSRA
possible at AHN. Non- zero chance that metro locations could see
-TSRA during this time frame but confidence is too low to include
in the TAF at this time. MCN will see -TSRA later this afternoon
between 17 and 21Z. Calm/NW winds will become NE at or just after
13Z today at 5KT or less.


//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
High confidence on winds. Medium confidence on remaining elements.

KAL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          60  83  61  85 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         63  83  62  86 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     58  78  58  81 /  20  20   0  10
Cartersville    61  84  60  87 /  10   0   0   0
Columbus        66  85  63  87 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     61  82  62  85 /  10  10   0   0
Macon           63  83  61  86 /  10  10   0   0
Rome            62  85  61  87 /  10   0   0   0
Peachtree City  62  83  60  86 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         65  83  62  85 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...KAL