Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
720
FNUS72 KFFC 230850
FWSFFC
Spot Forecast for Pineknot D15...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
450 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on May 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Good morning, Mike. Temperatures at ignition time are forecast to
start at 75 degrees, rising over 80 by 11 AM and over 85 by 1 PM and
for the remainder of the afternoon. High temperatures are forecast
to be around 88 degrees. As temperatures warm through the morning,
RH will drop to drop under 60 percent by noon and down to a minimum
of 47 percent around 5 PM. 20 ft winds will be light to start the
morning, from SE at 3 mph or less at 9 AM. 20 ft winds will shift to
S and increase slightly to 5-6 mph by 10 AM, then shift to SW at 6-7
mph by 1 PM and for much of the afternoon. Transport winds over the
burn site will start the morning from S at 5 mph, increasing to S at
7-8 mph at 10 AM this morning, then shifting to SW at 8-9 mph by 1
PM. Mixing heights increasing to 5000-5500 ft this afternoon,
combined with the transport winds, will lead to ADI values of 50-60
in the mid to late afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are forecast
to stay well north of the burn site this afternoon, with less than a
10 percent chance of a stray shower reaching the central Georgia in
the mid to late afternoon hours.
20 ft winds and transport winds will diminish quickly this evening,
dropping to manly SW at 3 mph or less after 8 PM. Furthermore, with
dewpoints lingering in the mid to upper 60s through the overnight
hours, relative humidity at the burn site will increase to as high
as 94 percent on Friday morning. The combination of high humidity
and light winds will lead to LVORI values of as high as 7 between 5
AM and 7 AM tomorrow morning. Shower and thunderstorm activity will
sink a bit farther south on Friday, with isolated storms possibly
reaching as far south as the burn site in the afternoon and evening.
Please feel free to contact us if you have any further questions or
concerns.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 88.
Min humidity........47 percent.
Dewpoint............66.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph in
the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......5600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 9 mph increasing to around 9 mph
late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6500 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (45200 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................6 early in the morning increasing to 59 in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
CEILING (KFT).......25 decreasing to 3.5 late in the morning, then
increasing to 5.0 late in the afternoon.
TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........58 54 42 44 53 62 60 47 48
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............75 78 81 83 85 85 86 86 87
Dewpoint........68 68 68 66 65 64 64 64 64
RH..............79 73 64 57 52 49 48 48 47
20 FT wind dir..SE S S S SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT wind spd..3 5 5 6 6 7 7 6 6
20 FT wind gust.6 7 9 10 10 12 12 12 10
Mix hgt (kft)...1.0 2.6 3.4 3.9 4.9 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.6
Transp wind dir.S S S S SW SW SW SW SW
Transp wind spd.5 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9
LVORI...........4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............6 23 36 42 48 48 53 58 59
Haines index....3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..7 19 25 27 33 36 39 43 45
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR FR FR
Ceiling (kft)...25 25 3.5 4.0 4.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 68.
Max humidity........94 percent.
Dewpoint............65.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 5 mph early in the
evening becoming light.
Mixing height.......200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 3 to 8 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (34000 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (600 knot-ft) late in the
night.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................1 to 41.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
CEILING (KFT).......5.0 increasing to 25 in the late evening and
overnight.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........31 25 30 35 24 22
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............86 83 77 75 73 70
Dewpoint........64 66 67 67 67 66
RH..............48 57 71 75 82 87
20 ft wind......SW 5 SW 3 SW 2 S 3 SW 3 SW 3
20 ft wind gust.9 6 5 6 6 6
Mix hgt (ft)....4300 200 200 200 200 200
Transport wind..SW 8 SW 3 SW 3 SW 3 SW 3 SW 3
LVORI...........1 3 3 4 5 6
ADI.............41 2 1 1 2 2
Haines index....4 4 4 4 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..34 1 1 1 1 1
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
Ceiling (kft)...5.0 5.0 25 25 25 25
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms late in the
afternoon.
CWR.................10 percent increasing to 20 percent late in the
afternoon.
LAL.................1 until 1700, then 2.
Max temperature.....Around 88.
Min humidity........45 percent.
Dewpoint............66 decreasing to 63 late in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph in
the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late
in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 3 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (600 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (46800 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................1 early in the morning increasing to 65 in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
large plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
CEILING (KFT).......20 decreasing to 15 early in the morning, then
decreasing to 12 early in the morning
increasing to 15 late in the morning increasing
to 20 decreasing to 3.0 late in the morning
increasing to 4.0 increasing to 5.0 late in the
afternoon.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........38 43 45 43 35 28
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 10 10 10
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............69 71 78 83 85 87
Dewpoint........67 68 68 67 64 63
RH..............93 92 73 59 49 45
20 ft wind......W 3 W 3 SW 5 SW 6 SW 7 SW 7
20 ft wind gust.6 6 8 10 12 13
Mix hgt (ft)....200 200 2400 3600 4900 5000
Transport wind..SW 3 W 3 SW 5 S 8 S 10 SW 12
LVORI...........7 6 3 1 1 1
ADI.............1 3 15 34 59 65
Haines index....3 3 3 5 5 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..1 1 13 23 44 46
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR FAIR FAIR
Ceiling (kft)...20 12 20 3.5 5.0 5.0
$$
Forecaster...King
Requested by...Mike Thompson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414926.0/FFC
.DELDT 05/23/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL michael.thompson@tnc.org