Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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497 FXUS63 KFGF 051059 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 559 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into the early evening, mainly across portions of the central and northern Red River Valley into adjacent areas of northwest and west central Minnesota. - Winds will become very gusty from late morning through the early evening, with gusts to 50 mph along and west of the Red River Valley. - Thursday, Friday, and Saturday afternoons all look to feature gusty northwest winds with a few showers. && .UPDATE... Issued at 559 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Seeing a few mid level echoes on radar early this morning, not sure much is actually reaching the ground. However, went ahead and added some isolated morning showers to the forecast. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 238 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 ...Synopsis... There is more shortwave activity evident on water vapor imagery early this morning over southeast Saskatchewan. Ensembles show portions of this wave moving into northwest Minnesota by 18z or so. Elongated 500/700mb low pressure will then set up from southern Saskatchewan/southern Manitoba through the Great Lakes through at least Saturday. Much less confidence enters the forecast thereafter, in how this pattern may break down. ...Strong to severe thunderstorms today... With morning sunshine and cold temperatures aloft, seeing about 500-1000J/kg of MLCAPE developing across northwest Minnesota this afternoon. The upper jet will also be pushing into the FA by later in the day. With very strong winds aloft, and steep mid level lapse rates, any showers or storms that form have the potential to mix these stronger winds to the surface. The new SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook has portions of the central and northern Valley into adjacent areas of northwest and west central Minnesota in a marginal risk for severe weather, with the main hazards being hail up to 1 inch and wind gusts up to 60 mph. ...Gusty winds today... Unidirectional winds throughout the entire sounding are expected today. 850mb winds by 00z Thu look to be about 35 knots along and west of the Valley, and up to 40 across the Devils Lake region. At 700mb, add another 5 to 10 knots to those values. There is a decent surface pressure gradient and steady 850mb cold advection. Think this is a good day to go with winds higher than what the NBM shows, which will bring Wind Advisory criteria into the Red River Valley as well. It will take a while before the worst of the winds move in, which should be through the afternoon into early evening. ...Thursday, Friday, and Saturday... Overall the elongated low pressure across southern Canada to the Great Lakes will take a while to break down, which means not much change in the weather from Thursday through Saturday. The upper jet continues to linger across the FA as well, holding on the southern periphery of the low. Wind speeds may not be quite as strong as today, but some areas could need a Wind Advisory again Thursday. Some afternoon showers are also possible each day. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 559 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 The biggest thing for the TAFs will be the increasing wind speeds today, with the biggest increase along and west of the Red River Valley (especially KDVL). The windiest period should be during the afternoon into early evening. Otherwise, there could be some afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms. Think it will be a lot of hit and miss, so only tried to put timing into the KBJI TAF, where it may be most likely this afternoon. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054. MN...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001>004-007-029. && $$ UPDATE...Godon DISCUSSION...Godon AVIATION...Godon