069
FXUS63 KFGF 251920
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
220 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expect patchy frost along the Canadian border tonight as
  temperatures dip to around 35 degrees

- The active pattern continues with chances for showers and
  thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday and again Thursday to
  Saturday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

The stacked low over western Ontario will continue to lift
slowly northward tonight, eventually stalling along the Manitoba
and northwest Ontario border on Sunday. As another short wave
crosses the FA Sunday night into Monday, the 500mb low along the
Manitoba/northwest Ontario border will drop southeast behind
it, reaching the Minnesota arrowhead late Monday night. 500mb
ridging then builds in behind this, resulting in more normal
highs for Wednesday and beyond (normal highs are around 70 now).

The surface pressure pattern is very weak tonight, so expect
winds to become light quickly by dark. Any lingering daytime
clouds will thin out about the same time as well, setting up
another chilly night. Went ahead and issued a Frost Advisory
mainly for areas along the Canadian border, where the
temperature should dip to around 35 degrees. It is still early
in the season, but if people have sensitive plants, they should
cover them if possible to protect them from the cold.

The first wave will track through the FA mainly Sunday night
into Monday. Showers and some embedded thunder will track from
west to east across the FA during this period. With the absence
of much instability/thunder, precipitation amounts should
mainly be 0.10 to 0.20 inches, with some spots of 0.25 to 0.50
inches. There is more uncertainty with the second wave for
Thursday to Saturday. This does appear to be deeper/stronger,
but it also has the potential for wave interactions and
multiple waves. Also, with return of slightly more normal
temperatures (low 70s), there is the potential for a little more
organized thunderstorm activity. At this point, the
probabilities for more than 0.50 inches of rain are still fairly
low (20-30 percent). As this period gets closer, will get a
better idea on how it may unfold.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

The biggest impact will be early on, with MVFR ceilings
lingering near every site but KFAR and KBJI. This SCT-BKN cloud
line is right on the edge of KDVL and KGFK, so will go with the
SCT route for those two sites. However, KTVF is still within the
thicker BKN020 ceilings, so will linger them through mid
afternoon. Once these lift to the north, no impacts are
expected. Winds speeds will become light after dark with minimal
cloud cover.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday for NDZ006>008-015-
     016-054.
MN...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Sunday for MNZ004>009.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Godon
AVIATION...Godon