Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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912 FXUS63 KFGF 301156 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 656 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected today with amounts generally ranging from a tenth in NE ND to three quarters of an inch in the southern valley. - There is a low chance for severe thunderstorms Sunday during the afternoon and evening hours. && .UPDATE... Issued at 651 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Initial or lead area of convection from last nights development in the western Dakotas has waned as it approached the western fringe of the FA. Went ahead and reduced pops for much of the morning in the valley with only some scattered pops before better areal coverage is expected late this morning into the afternoon with the westerly wind shift/frontal passage. All else remains on target with respect to forecast with breezy south winds and a relatively warm start to the day as temps are in the low to mid 60s in the valley. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 304 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 ...Synopsis... Ensemble guidance continues to suggest the active pattern persisting into as least the first week of June with multiple chances for precipitation over the next 7 days. Upper level flow will continue to allow waves to traverse the area unimpeded in the westerly flow aloft. Temperatures moving into June will be at or slightly below normal for highs, with low to mid 70s expected except when showers and cloud cover occur during midday, holding temps into the upper 60s. ...Showers with embedded thunderstorms today... Increasing moisture return in the mid levels streaming north induced by low pressure maturing in northern Alberta will bring categorical rain chances to the area today. This moisture stream under 500mb confluence will provide widespread lift and scattered elevated convection this morning in eastern ND until better forcing with a midlevel short wave and westerly wind shift move into the valley. This will lead to rain amounts, as mentioned in the key messages, of less across the northern valley and more in the south, generally a tenth or so in the north increasing to near 0.75" in west central MN where more instability bring the stronger forcing and higher rainfall rates with some convection. In the wake of the system, Friday and Saturday will remain in the cyclonic flow of the upper low, at the base of the trough with shower chances remaining possible whenever a vort lobe of energy pinwheels around the upper low over the FA. Currently guidance suggests thats possible, with a 20 to 30% chance of PoPs, Friday night and early Saturday morning. ...Thunderstorms Sunday... Model guidance including CSU machine learning do point to a potential for severe thunderstorms associated with the theta-e/moisture gradient expected to develop across the area. Dewpoints over 60 appear likely in the southern portion of the FA along with 40kts of westerly 500mb flow. These items suggest we`ll have the shear and instability present for organized convection initiation will depend on forcing and boundary location which at this distance in time remain uncertain but the set up is beginning to take shape. Sundays forecast should be watched as we move closer to the weekend especially for people with outdoor/lake activities. The active pattern continues into next week, with thunderstorm chances entering the forecast again Tuesday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 635 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 VFR Conditions will quickly drop into the MVFR/IFR category as these line of showers/t-storms approach the TAF sites moving west to east. These showers have slowed down as they approached KDVL so timing has been a little bit more difficult. Ceilings are also going to be difficult since under the storm the ceilings range from 1500 to 3500ft. By 04-06z VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...JK/DJR DISCUSSION...JK AVIATION...MM